Will UE Tavernes win on 2026-10-28?
13 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (93%) · No at 98¢ · $16K held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
14
No 93%
$15.6K
-$50.9
97.9¢ → 97.8¢
+0% since entry · 13 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
13 of 14 top traders (93%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
13 traders
Top 2 hold 67%
Freshness
Late
132h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
93% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 98.3¢ | $7.6K | $7.5K | -$50.21 | 50% 1408-1410 (2818) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Noavg 97.5¢ | $2.6K | $2.6K | -$1.2 | 37% 191-330 (521) |
SE sentrio | Noavg 98.2¢ | $2.3K | $2.3K | -$6.46 | 31% 170-383 (553) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 97.6¢ | $964.65 | $962.05 | -$2.6 | 44% 79-102 (181) |
OD Oddstorm | Noavg 94¢ | $504.74 | $523.53 | +$18.79 | 15% 16-94 (110) |
CI cigarettes | Noavg 97.9¢ | $514.19 | $514.01 | -$0.18 | 53% 5376-4855 (10231) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 98.1¢ | $502.16 | $499.05 | -$3.11 | 41% 3023-4424 (7447) |
LI Limousin | Noavg 98.6¢ | $288.85 | $285.77 | -$3.08 | 25% 213-654 (867) |
QW qwen300.fund | Noavg 98.4¢ | $156.25 | $155.34 | -$0.92 | 29% 2510-6165 (8675) |
VE Venusian | Noavg 98.4¢ | $156.68 | $155.25 | -$1.43 | 25% 213-654 (867) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $84.87 | $83.62 | -$1.25 | 36% 252-443 (695) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 98.4¢ | $31.65 | $31.36 | -$0.29 | 43% 224-303 (527) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100 | Noavg 97.6¢ | $10 | $9.99 | -$0.01 | 38% 574-933 (1507) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $0.26 | $1.3 | +$1.04 | 15% 15-83 (98) |
Invested
$7,553.55
Value
$7.5K
PnL
-$50.21
Record
50%
1408-1410 (2818)
Invested
$2,631.37
Value
$2.6K
PnL
-$1.2
Record
37%
191-330 (521)
Invested
$2,269.76
Value
$2.3K
PnL
-$6.46
Record
31%
170-383 (553)
Invested
$964.65
Value
$962.05
PnL
-$2.6
Record
44%
79-102 (181)
Invested
$504.74
Value
$523.53
PnL
+$18.79
Record
15%
16-94 (110)
Invested
$514.19
Value
$514.01
PnL
-$0.18
Record
53%
5376-4855 (10231)
Invested
$502.16
Value
$499.05
PnL
-$3.11
Record
41%
3023-4424 (7447)
Invested
$288.85
Value
$285.77
PnL
-$3.08
Record
25%
213-654 (867)
Invested
$156.25
Value
$155.34
PnL
-$0.92
Record
29%
2510-6165 (8675)
Invested
$156.68
Value
$155.25
PnL
-$1.43
Record
25%
213-654 (867)
Invested
$84.87
Value
$83.62
PnL
-$1.25
Record
36%
252-443 (695)
Invested
$31.65
Value
$31.36
PnL
-$0.29
Record
43%
224-303 (527)
Invested
$10
Value
$9.99
PnL
-$0.01
Record
38%
574-933 (1507)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.26
Value
$1.3
PnL
+$1.04
Record
15%
15-83 (98)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.