Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Army, while the market favors Air Force (79%). 8 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Air Force vs. Army

8 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Army (57%) · Army at 22¢ · $38K held · ended Nov 8

Air Force79¢Army21¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Army

Consensus Traders

Army 57%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$38.0K

Combined PnL

$-16.9K

Smart Money Entry

48.3¢ → 21.5¢

-55% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidArmy at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Army

8 of 14 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Air Force 79%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Air Force79%

Army22%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Army8 traders

Total Value$21.6K

Total Shares75,641

Combined PnL$-16.1K

Air Force6 traders

Total Value$13.0K

Total Shares18,439

Combined PnL-$879.72

Army — 57%Air Force — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884CTR	Armyavg 57.6¢	$21.9K	$7.7K	$-13.5K	51% 5014-4884 (9898)
HI hi774cCTR	Armyavg 62¢	$6.8K	$6.8K	-$55.16	46% 5332-6170 (11502)
CUTJALENHURTS	Air Forceavg 75¢	$5.3K	$5.6K	+$247.72	52% 6414-6029 (12443)
TA takeormakeCTR	Armyavg 31.9¢	$6.4K	$4.8K	$-1.6K	52% 5134-4713 (9847)
RN1	Air Forceavg 69¢	$4.3K	$4.6K	+$238.81	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
FL FlamePyro	Air Forceavg 70.6¢	$3.4K	$1.8K	$-1.5K	56% 490-389 (879)
CM cm2897CTR	Armyavg 31¢	$2.6K	$1.8K	-$805.7	51% 2230-2185 (4415)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Armyavg 58.6¢	$3.7K	$1.5K	$-1.3K	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
└ Air Force leg	Air Forceavg 63.8¢	$683.04	$840.46	+$132.91
└ Army leg	Armyavg 58.6¢	$1.8K	$674.62	$-1.4K
JU justaluckydude	Air Forceavg 65.8¢	$856.59	$1.0K	+$165.48	53% 12378-10927 (23305)
BI BillBenter2026ARB<$100	Armyavg 33.3¢	$936.62	$960.82	+$24.2	57% 19479-14427 (33906)
└ Air Force leg	Air Forceavg 54.5¢	$448.66	$646.06	+$197.4
└ Army leg	Armyavg 33.3¢	$487.96	$314.76	-$173.2
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Air Forceavg 69¢	$498.93	$501.94	+$3.01	56% 8738-6795 (15533)
└ Air Force leg	Air Forceavg 69¢	$336.04	$382.3	+$46.27
└ Army leg	Armyavg 29.3¢	$162.89	$119.64	-$43.25
OJ ojgARB<$100	Air Forceavg 71¢	$508.87	$402.34	-$106.54	43% 838-1096 (1934)
└ Army leg	Armyavg 59.1¢	$253.54	$263.83	+$10.29
└ Air Force leg	Air Forceavg 71¢	$255.34	$138.51	-$116.83
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Armyavg 21¢	$216.74	$221.9	+$5.16	42% 8192-11384 (19576)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR	Armyavg 30¢	$180.35	$129.25	-$51.1	53% 14954-13478 (28432)
PA Pan9XCTR	Armyavg 41.4¢	$162.88	$37.97	-$12.55	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Air Forceavg 69¢	$26.77	$30.46	+$3.69	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Armyavg 60.7¢	$20.24	$20.5	+$0.26	51% 6523-6284 (12807)
TA TAIWANNUMBERONE<$100	Air Forceavg 70.6¢	$3.56	$3.96	+$0.4	54% 1393-1200 (2593)

6512395314597884CTR

Army

Invested

$21,861.58

Value

$7.7K

PnL

$-13.5K

Record

51%

5014-4884 (9898)

hi774cCTR

Army

Invested

$6,840

Value

$6.8K

PnL

-$55.16

Record

46%

5332-6170 (11502)

CUTJALENHURTS

Air Force

Invested

$5,306.76

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$247.72

Record

52%

6414-6029 (12443)

takeormakeCTR

Army

Invested

$6,449.44

Value

$4.8K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

52%

5134-4713 (9847)

RN1

Air Force

Invested

$4,331.68

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$238.81

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

FlamePyro

Air Force

Invested

$3,376.11

Value

$1.8K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

56%

490-389 (879)

cm2897CTR

Army

Invested

$2,629.11

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$805.7

Record

51%

2230-2185 (4415)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Army

Invested

$3,681.27

Value

$1.5K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Both legs:

Air Force$683.0463.8¢+$132.91

Army$1,837.5458.6¢$-1.4K

justaluckydude

Air Force

Invested

$856.59

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$165.48

Record

53%

12378-10927 (23305)

BillBenter2026ARB<$100

Army

Invested

$936.62

Value

$960.82

PnL

+$24.2

Record

57%

19479-14427 (33906)

Both legs:

Air Force$448.6654.5¢+$197.4

Army$487.9633.3¢-$173.2

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Air Force

Invested

$498.93

Value

$501.94

PnL

+$3.01

Record

56%

8738-6795 (15533)

Both legs:

Air Force$336.0469¢+$46.27

Army$162.8929.3¢-$43.25

ojgARB<$100

Air Force

Invested

$508.87

Value

$402.34

PnL

-$106.54

Record

43%

838-1096 (1934)

Both legs:

Army$253.5459.1¢+$10.29

Air Force$255.3471¢-$116.83

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Army

Invested

$216.74

Value

$221.9

PnL

+$5.16

Record

42%

8192-11384 (19576)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR

Army

Invested

$180.35

Value

$129.25

PnL

-$51.1

Record

53%

14954-13478 (28432)

Pan9XCTR

Army

Invested

$162.88

Value

$37.97

PnL

-$12.55

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

Flaznorp<$100

Air Force

Invested

$26.77

Value

$30.46

PnL

+$3.69

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Army

Invested

$20.24

Value

$20.5

PnL

+$0.26

Record

51%

6523-6284 (12807)

TAIWANNUMBERONE<$100

Air Force

Invested

$3.56

Value

$3.96

PnL

+$0.4

Record

54%

1393-1200 (2593)

Research grade

AvoidArmy at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Army

8 of 14 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Air Force 79%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Army wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance23.4%

21.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$327.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

427.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.