Sacramento State vs. Central Michigan: O/U 43.5

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (62%) · Under at 84¢ · $22K held · ended Nov 12

Over17¢Under83¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 62%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$21.6K

Combined PnL

$472.48

Smart Money Entry

52.4¢ → 83.5¢

+59% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 13 top traders (62%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over17%

Under84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$10.3K

Total Shares20,436

Combined PnL-$377.27

Over5 traders

Total Value$6.6K

Total Shares12,706

Combined PnL+$849.75

Under — 62%Over — 38%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 53.2¢	$7.4K	$7.1K	-$232.58	57% 3229-2433 (5662)
IM imjustkenisgheyCTR	Overavg 45¢	$4.4K	$5.5K	+$1.1K	54% 15-13 (28)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 50¢	$3.0K	$2.5K	+$3.76	48% 1427-1570 (2997)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$133.99
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.7¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$130.23
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 52¢	$2.1K	$1.8K	-$324.39	53% 1851-1666 (3517)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Overavg 51¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$19.58	52% 497-452 (949)
└ Over leg	Overavg 51¢	$511.73	$562.15	+$50.42
└ Under leg	Underavg 51¢	$510	$440	-$70
RN1	Underavg 48.4¢	$578.22	$621.85	+$43.63	57% 4059-3077 (7136)
PR primmCTR	Overavg 48.4¢	$899.87	$567	-$332.87	61% 870-566 (1436)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Overavg 47.5¢	$514.5	$539	+$24.5	59% 3478-2370 (5848)
└ Over leg	Overavg 47.5¢	$332.5	$385	+$52.5
└ Under leg	Underavg 52¢	$182	$154	-$28
GC GC-PARB<$100	Overavg 47.5¢	$514.5	$539	+$24.5	20% 99-384 (483)
└ Over leg	Overavg 47.5¢	$332.5	$385	+$52.5
└ Under leg	Underavg 52¢	$182	$154	-$28
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 45.6¢	$350.67	$430.64	+$79.97	55% 719-584 (1303)
65 6512395314597884	Underavg 49.7¢	$304.92	$426.26	+$121.35	50% 3301-3257 (6558)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Underavg 47.3¢	$153.87	$143.22	-$10.65	48% 536-588 (1124)
BI biying88888	Underavg 46¢	$68.08	$111.74	+$43.66	37% 121-203 (324)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Underavg 52¢	$116.4	$98.5	-$17.91	15% 150-841 (991)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Overavg 44¢	$45.49	$57.89	+$12.4	55% 205-165 (370)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Overavg 51¢	$51	$55	+$4	67% 1661-814 (2475)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 44.9¢	$18.35	$17.98	-$0.37	49% 692-733 (1425)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$7,356.81

Value

$7.1K

PnL

-$232.58

Record

57%

3229-2433 (5662)

imjustkenisgheyCTR

Over

Invested

$4,443.75

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

54%

15-13 (28)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$2,964.97

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$3.76

Record

48%

1427-1570 (2997)

Both legs:

Under$1,350.2450¢+$133.99

Over$1,127.7349.7¢-$130.23

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$2,108.56

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$324.39

Record

53%

1851-1666 (3517)

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,021.73

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$19.58

Record

52%

497-452 (949)

Both legs:

Over$511.7351¢+$50.42

Under$51051¢-$70

RN1

Under

Invested

$578.22

Value

$621.85

PnL

+$43.63

Record

57%

4059-3077 (7136)

primmCTR

Over

Invested

$899.87

Value

$567

PnL

-$332.87

Record

61%

870-566 (1436)

NM-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$514.5

Value

$539

PnL

+$24.5

Record

59%

3478-2370 (5848)

Both legs:

Over$332.547.5¢+$52.5

Under$18252¢-$28

GC-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$514.5

Value

$539

PnL

+$24.5

Record

20%

99-384 (483)

Both legs:

Over$332.547.5¢+$52.5

Under$18252¢-$28

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$350.67

Value

$430.64

PnL

+$79.97

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

6512395314597884

Under

Invested

$304.92

Value

$426.26

PnL

+$121.35

Record

50%

3301-3257 (6558)

Multicoloured-Serf

Under

Invested

$153.87

Value

$143.22

PnL

-$10.65

Record

48%

536-588 (1124)

biying88888

Under

Invested

$68.08

Value

$111.74

PnL

+$43.66

Record

37%

121-203 (324)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Under

Invested

$116.4

Value

$98.5

PnL

-$17.91

Record

15%

150-841 (991)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$45.49

Value

$57.89

PnL

+$12.4

Record

55%

205-165 (370)

RLWGCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$51

Value

$55

PnL

+$4

Record

67%

1661-814 (2475)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$18.35

Value

$17.98

PnL

-$0.37

Record

49%

692-733 (1425)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 84%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 13 top traders (62%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.2%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.