Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Xipto Esports, while the market favors LEGION (100%). 10 of 18 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Dota 2: Xipto Esports vs LEGION (BO3) - 1win Essence Play-in Group B

10 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Xipto Esports (56%) · Xipto Esports at 0.1¢ · $46K held · ends Nov 11

Xipto Esports<1¢LEGION>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Xipto Esports

Consensus Traders

Xipto Esports 56%

Total Value

$45.8K

Combined PnL

$-16.5K

Smart Money Entry

36¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidXipto Esports at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Xipto Esports

10 of 18 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors LEGION 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Xipto Esports0%

LEGION100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

LEGION8 traders

Total Value$45.2K

Total Shares45,251

Combined PnL+$14.8K

Xipto Esports10 traders

Total Value$620.63

Total Shares87,638

Combined PnL$-31.3K

LEGION — 44%Xipto Esports — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	LEGIONavg 63¢	$16.0K	$25.0K	+$8.9K	53% 1791-1599 (3390)
UN UNIVERSEMVP	LEGIONavg 68.4¢	$4.9K	$7.1K	+$2.2K	25% 26-76 (102)
GX gxxyy	LEGIONavg 75¢	$4.6K	$6.2K	+$1.5K	69% 484-220 (704)
Hawk.live	LEGIONavg 71.8¢	$2.4K	$3.2K	+$839.74	56% 661-512 (1173)
GE GEAEW	LEGIONavg 67¢	$884.76	$1.3K	+$435.12	— 1-2 (3)
GO GooGooGaga1	LEGIONavg 67¢	$999.98	$1.1K	+$427.98	43% 13-17 (30)
JU JuiceFarm	LEGIONavg 65¢	$649.99	$998.98	+$348.99	— 12-7 (19)
AM ameisgoat11CTR	Xipto Esportsavg 30.1¢	$1.1K	$558.82	-$267.57	32% 281-611 (892)
SU suitcase6628	LEGIONavg 88¢	$295.32	$309.2	+$19.88	63% 260-151 (411)
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR	Xipto Esportsavg 32.4¢	$13.7K	$21.2	$-13.7K	46% 426-495 (921)
GT gt7238CTR<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 35¢	$81.02	$18.52	-$62.5	3% 16-448 (464)
SI Sisyphus-CTR	Xipto Esportsavg 47.1¢	$8.8K	$9.3	$-8.8K	57% 514-393 (907)
RA RandomVibecoderCTR	Xipto Esportsavg 34.2¢	$3.1K	$4.46	$-3.0K	48% 491-535 (1026)
Medo3DCTR	Xipto Esportsavg 18.1¢	$1.3K	$3.73	$-1.3K	6% 14-216 (230)
GE GeorgeReCTR	Xipto Esportsavg 50¢	$3.7K	$3.66	$-3.7K	53% 698-629 (1327)
PO PourpelNourpelCTR	Xipto Esportsavg 45¢	$303.21	$0.67	-$302.53	50% 30-30 (60)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR	Xipto Esportsavg 47.5¢	$160	$0.17	-$159.83	20% 104-404 (508)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 7¢	$7	$0.1	-$6.9	53% 5667-5090 (10757)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

LEGION

Invested

$16,047.82

Value

$25.0K

PnL

+$8.9K

Record

53%

1791-1599 (3390)

UNIVERSEMVP

LEGION

Invested

$4,869.9

Value

$7.1K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

25%

26-76 (102)

gxxyy

LEGION

Invested

$4,635.7

Value

$6.2K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

69%

484-220 (704)

Hawk.live

LEGION

Invested

$2,374.08

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$839.74

Record

56%

661-512 (1173)

GEAEW

LEGION

Invested

$884.76

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$435.12

Record

—

1-2 (3)

GooGooGaga1

LEGION

Invested

$999.98

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$427.98

Record

43%

13-17 (30)

JuiceFarm

LEGION

Invested

$649.99

Value

$998.98

PnL

+$348.99

Record

—

12-7 (19)

ameisgoat11CTR

Xipto Esports

Invested

$1,082.12

Value

$558.82

PnL

-$267.57

Record

32%

281-611 (892)

suitcase6628

LEGION

Invested

$295.32

Value

$309.2

PnL

+$19.88

Record

63%

260-151 (411)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR

Xipto Esports

Invested

$13,718.51

Value

$21.2

PnL

$-13.7K

Record

46%

426-495 (921)

gt7238CTR<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

$81.02

Value

$18.52

PnL

-$62.5

Record

16-448 (464)

Sisyphus-CTR

Xipto Esports

Invested

$8,762.24

Value

$9.3

PnL

$-8.8K

Record

57%

514-393 (907)

RandomVibecoderCTR

Xipto Esports

Invested

$3,052.73

Value

$4.46

PnL

$-3.0K

Record

48%

491-535 (1026)

Medo3DCTR

Xipto Esports

Invested

$1,349.86

Value

$3.73

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

14-216 (230)

GeorgeReCTR

Xipto Esports

Invested

$3,655

Value

$3.66

PnL

$-3.7K

Record

53%

698-629 (1327)

PourpelNourpelCTR

Xipto Esports

Invested

$303.21

Value

$0.67

PnL

-$302.53

Record

50%

30-30 (60)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR

Xipto Esports

Invested

$160

Value

$0.17

PnL

-$159.83

Record

20%

104-404 (508)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$6.9

Record

53%

5667-5090 (10757)

Research grade

AvoidXipto Esports at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Xipto Esports

10 of 18 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors LEGION 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Xipto Esports wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.