Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (65%). 10 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Arsenal FC leading at halftime?

10 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (77%) · No at 35¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 7

Yes65¢No35¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 77%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

-$448.52

Smart Money Entry

59.7¢ → 35¢

-41% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 35%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 13 top traders (77%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 65%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes65%

No35%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$795.16

Total Shares2,109

Combined PnL-$490.5

Yes3 traders

Total Value$175.59

Total Shares267

Combined PnL+$41.98

No — 77%Yes — 23%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 71.1¢	$1.4K	$1.0K	-$368.35	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 53.3¢	$470.69	$573.61	+$102.92
└ No leg	Noavg 71.1¢	$927.65	$456.39	-$471.27
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 34.5¢	$285.85	$319.63	+$33.78	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Noavg 62¢	$285.52	$266.18	-$19.34	56% 8738-6795 (15533)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 35.3¢	$82.13	$151.41	+$69.28
└ No leg	Noavg 62¢	$203.39	$114.77	-$88.62
LI LightParadoxCTR	Noavg 75.9¢	$421.45	$194.25	-$227.2	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
LI LimousinCTR	Noavg 88.5¢	$456.78	$180.65	-$276.12	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
VE VenusianARB<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$119.02	$132.86	+$13.84	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 50¢	$75.31	$97.9	+$22.59
└ No leg	Noavg 43.8¢	$43.71	$34.96	-$8.75
nigiri99<$100	Yesavg 65.6¢	$71.55	$70.85	-$0.7	46% 8770-10464 (19234)
SE sentrio<$100	Yesavg 64¢	$58.58	$59.41	+$0.83	50% 26409-26025 (52434)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$3.49	$45.34	+$41.85	49% 15008-15929 (30937)
RN1CTR<$100	Noavg 38¢	$38.22	$35.21	-$3.02	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 33.8¢	$29.79	$30.65	+$0.86	58% 23579-16943 (40522)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Noavg 34¢	$38.56	$13.3	+$0.19	64% 10179-5769 (15948)
PV pvc975CTR<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$25.36	$8.89	-$16.48	98% 18444-384 (18828)
dips.CTR<$100	Noavg 36¢	$6.29	$6.12	-$0.17	47% 11040-12658 (23698)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Noavg 36¢	$4.48	$4.36	-$0.12	59% 33715-23828 (57543)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Noavg 72¢	$4.32	$2.1	-$2.22	48% 1776-1912 (3688)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$1,398.35

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$368.35

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

Both legs:

Yes$470.6953.3¢+$102.92

No$927.6571.1¢-$471.27

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$285.85

Value

$319.63

PnL

+$33.78

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Invested

$285.52

Value

$266.18

PnL

-$19.34

Record

56%

8738-6795 (15533)

Both legs:

Yes$82.1335.3¢+$69.28

No$203.3962¢-$88.62

LightParadoxCTR

Invested

$421.45

Value

$194.25

PnL

-$227.2

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

LimousinCTR

Invested

$456.78

Value

$180.65

PnL

-$276.12

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

VenusianARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$119.02

Value

$132.86

PnL

+$13.84

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

Both legs:

Invested

$71.55

Value

$70.85

PnL

-$0.7

Record

46%

8770-10464 (19234)

sentrio<$100

Yes

Invested

$58.58

Value

$59.41

PnL

+$0.83

Record

50%

26409-26025 (52434)

LuckyLoo<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.49

Value

$45.34

PnL

+$41.85

Record

49%

15008-15929 (30937)

RN1CTR<$100

Invested

$38.22

Value

$35.21

PnL

-$3.02

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$29.79

Value

$30.65

PnL

+$0.86

Record

58%

23579-16943 (40522)

GC-PCTR<$100

Invested

$38.56

Value

$13.3

PnL

+$0.19

Record

64%

10179-5769 (15948)

pvc975CTR<$100

Invested

$25.36

Value

$8.89

PnL

-$16.48

Record

98%

18444-384 (18828)

dips.CTR<$100

Invested

$6.29

Value

$6.12

PnL

-$0.17

Record

47%

11040-12658 (23698)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Invested

$4.48

Value

$4.36

PnL

-$0.12

Record

59%

33715-23828 (57543)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Invested

$4.32

Value

$2.1

PnL

-$2.22

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 35%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 13 top traders (77%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 65%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance37.2%

35.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$169.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

269.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.