Crystal Palace FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 1.5

11 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Over (73%) · Over at 87¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 8

Over87¢Under13¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 73%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.6K

Combined PnL

$746.52

Smart Money Entry

83.8¢ → 86.5¢

+3% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

11 of 15 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over87%

Under14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over11 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares4,866

Combined PnL+$720.31

Under4 traders

Total Value$405.92

Total Shares1,483

Combined PnL+$26.21

Over — 73%Under — 27%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 87.8¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$39	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 28.2¢	$1.5K	$871.08	-$753.09	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
└ Under leg	Underavg 28.2¢	$1.5K	$696.02	-$759.69
└ Over leg	Overavg 82.7¢	$167.45	$175.06	+$6.6
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Overavg 79.6¢	$666.96	$724.87	+$57.91	58% 3248-2345 (5593)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 79.8¢	$396.15	$438.64	+$42.48	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 26.9¢	$264.07	$308.7	+$44.63	51% 38648-37820 (76468)
AN Anon455	Overavg 77.1¢	$213.19	$231.73	+$18.54	55% 3814-3145 (6959)
RN1	Overavg 77¢	$120.42	$127.11	+$6.69	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
ZaiZoiBele	Overavg 70.3¢	$2.4K	$123.29	+$614.89	79% 5360-1385 (6745)
WA WagerWizard	Overavg 88¢	$103.24	$101.48	-$1.76	84% 15082-2932 (18014)
UN Unit70CTR	Underavg 23.9¢	$103.85	$86.96	-$16.89	32% 14-30 (44)
dips.<$100	Overavg 69¢	$40.79	$51.14	+$10.35	47% 11040-12658 (23698)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 75.1¢	$56.78	$41.27	+$10.01	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 84¢	$22.26	$22.4	+$0.14	58% 23579-16943 (40522)
SE sentrio<$100	Overavg 82¢	$4.1	$9.66	+$0.06	50% 26504-26107 (52611)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Underavg 15¢	$8.42	$8.7	+$0.28	51% 6523-6284 (12807)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 29¢	$3.38	$1.57	-$1.81	50% 1850-1866 (3716)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$2,509.39

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$39

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,497.08

Value

$871.08

PnL

-$753.09

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

Both legs:

Under$1,455.7128.2¢-$759.69

Over$167.4582.7¢+$6.6

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Over

Invested

$666.96

Value

$724.87

PnL

+$57.91

Record

58%

3248-2345 (5593)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$396.15

Value

$438.64

PnL

+$42.48

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$264.07

Value

$308.7

PnL

+$44.63

Record

51%

38648-37820 (76468)

Anon455

Over

Invested

$213.19

Value

$231.73

PnL

+$18.54

Record

55%

3814-3145 (6959)

RN1

Over

Invested

$120.42

Value

$127.11

PnL

+$6.69

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

ZaiZoiBele

Over

Invested

$2,426.91

Value

$123.29

PnL

+$614.89

Record

79%

5360-1385 (6745)

WagerWizard

Over

Invested

$103.24

Value

$101.48

PnL

-$1.76

Record

84%

15082-2932 (18014)

Unit70CTR

Under

Invested

$103.85

Value

$86.96

PnL

-$16.89

Record

32%

14-30 (44)

dips.<$100

Over

Invested

$40.79

Value

$51.14

PnL

+$10.35

Record

47%

11040-12658 (23698)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$56.78

Value

$41.27

PnL

+$10.01

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$22.26

Value

$22.4

PnL

+$0.14

Record

58%

23579-16943 (40522)

sentrio<$100

Over

Invested

$4.1

Value

$9.66

PnL

+$0.06

Record

50%

26504-26107 (52611)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.42

Value

$8.7

PnL

+$0.28

Record

51%

6523-6284 (12807)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.38

Value

$1.57

PnL

-$1.81

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 87%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

11 of 15 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.