Nottingham Forest FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score

7 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 60¢ · $38K held · ended Nov 7

Yes60¢No40¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$37.9K

Combined PnL

$2.8K

Smart Money Entry

75.8¢ → 60¢

-21% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 14 top traders (50%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes60%

No40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$19.7K

Total Shares29,216

Combined PnL$-4.2K

No7 traders

Total Value$16.5K

Total Shares39,991

Combined PnL+$6.9K

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 68.2¢	$14.1K	$12.9K	$-1.3K	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Noavg 27.9¢	$4.8K	$6.8K	+$2.1K	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Noavg 14.1¢	$1.5K	$4.3K	+$2.8K	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
PV pvc975	Yesavg 99.9¢	$5.9K	$3.5K	$-2.3K	98% 18444-384 (18828)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Noavg 10.9¢	$1.4K	$3.2K	+$1.8K	51% 38648-37820 (76468)
RN1	Yesavg 76.3¢	$3.3K	$2.9K	-$442.43	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
VE VenusianCTR	Noavg 35.3¢	$1.4K	$1.6K	+$188.41	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Yesavg 62.4¢	$598.19	$628.24	+$70.8	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 62.4¢	$362.19	$348.25	-$13.94
└ No leg	Noavg 29.6¢	$207.27	$279.99	+$84.74
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Noavg 41¢	$724.83	$515.61	+$0.55	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
└ No leg	Noavg 41¢	$336.03	$327.83	-$8.2
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 57.8¢	$180.96	$187.78	+$8.75
NM NM-PARB<$100	Yesavg 58¢	$305.28	$308.36	+$3.08	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 58¢	$178.85	$185.02	+$6.17
└ No leg	Noavg 41¢	$126.43	$123.34	-$3.08
LI LimousinCTR	Noavg 41.2¢	$283.2	$274.87	-$8.33	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
nigiri99	Yesavg 59¢	$254.7	$259.2	+$4.5	46% 8770-10464 (19234)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Noavg 17.5¢	$101.37	$231.95	+$130.58	49% 15008-15929 (30937)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Noavg 50¢	$200	$198	+$0	— 1-0 (1)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 50¢	$100	$118	+$16
└ No leg	Noavg 50¢	$100	$80	-$16
ZaiZoiBele	Yesavg 98.4¢	$287.93	$175.6	-$112.33	79% 5360-1385 (6745)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Yesavg 80.3¢	$246.43	$97.34	-$10.73	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 80.3¢	$93.83	$70.12	-$20.63
└ No leg	Noavg 22.6¢	$15.38	$27.23	+$9.91
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 41¢	$11.24	$11.29	+$0.05	58% 23579-16943 (40522)
alpheclabs2<$100	Yesavg 84.9¢	$12.58	$8.89	-$3.69	47% 1366-1547 (2913)
RO Rocky31<$100	Yesavg 78¢	$10.63	$8.18	-$2.45	75% 1985-674 (2659)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$14,147.05

Value

$12.9K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

LightParadoxCTR

Invested

$4,753.88

Value

$6.8K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

MadridTimeCTR

Invested

$1,519.67

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$2.8K

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

pvc975

Yes

Invested

$5,862.83

Value

$3.5K

PnL

$-2.3K

Record

98%

18444-384 (18828)

SnakeBallCTR

Invested

$1,438.66

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

51%

38648-37820 (76468)

RN1

Yes

Invested

$3,322.66

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$442.43

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

VenusianCTR

Invested

$1,421.67

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$188.41

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$598.19

Value

$628.24

PnL

+$70.8

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Both legs:

Yes$362.1962.4¢-$13.94

No$207.2729.6¢+$84.74

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Invested

$724.83

Value

$515.61

PnL

+$0.55

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

Both legs:

No$336.0341¢-$8.2

Yes$180.9657.8¢+$8.75

NM-PARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$305.28

Value

$308.36

PnL

+$3.08

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

Both legs:

Yes$178.8558¢+$6.17

No$126.4341¢-$3.08

LimousinCTR

Invested

$283.2

Value

$274.87

PnL

-$8.33

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

nigiri99

Yes

Invested

$254.7

Value

$259.2

PnL

+$4.5

Record

46%

8770-10464 (19234)

LuckyLooCTR

Invested

$101.37

Value

$231.95

PnL

+$130.58

Record

49%

15008-15929 (30937)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Invested

$200

Value

$198

PnL

+$0

Record

—

1-0 (1)

Both legs:

Invested

$287.93

Value

$175.6

PnL

-$112.33

Record

79%

5360-1385 (6745)

Pan9XARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$246.43

Value

$97.34

PnL

-$10.73

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

Both legs:

Yes$93.8380.3¢-$20.63

No$15.3822.6¢+$9.91

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$11.24

Value

$11.29

PnL

+$0.05

Record

58%

23579-16943 (40522)

alpheclabs2<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.58

Value

$8.89

PnL

-$3.69

Record

47%

1366-1547 (2913)

Rocky31<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.63

Value

$8.18

PnL

-$2.45

Record

75%

1985-674 (2659)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 60%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 14 top traders (50%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.2%

60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$60.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

160.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.