Will ADO Den Haag win on 2026-11-07?

6 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 59¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 7

Yes41¢No59¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 43%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

$143.34

Smart Money Entry

42.8¢ → 59¢

+38% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 14 top traders (43%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes41%

No59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares3,506

Combined PnL+$424.81

Yes8 traders

Total Value$817.79

Total Shares1,987

Combined PnL-$281.47

No — 43%Yes — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 53¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$15.38	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Yesavg 58.2¢	$576.39	$405.87	-$170.52	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
PA Pan9X	Noavg 31.6¢	$196.39	$321.34	+$132.02	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Yesavg 44.9¢	$229.43	$229.19	+$102.47	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
└ No leg	Noavg 31.4¢	$81.29	$152.68	+$71.39
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 44.9¢	$83.87	$76.51	+$31.07
oieshfn345	Noavg 19.9¢	$76.62	$227.63	+$151.02	58% 2117-1562 (3679)
GA GaditimaCTR	Yesavg 53.3¢	$199.87	$153.75	-$46.12	47% 7503-8319 (15822)
VE VenusianCTR	Yesavg 36.4¢	$129.93	$146.31	+$16.38	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 46.8¢	$108.06	$136.2	+$28.14	49% 15008-15929 (30937)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 1.1¢	$2.56	$132.23	+$129.67	51% 38648-37820 (76468)
LI LimousinARB<$100	Yesavg 77.2¢	$204.12	$124.91	-$79.21	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 77.2¢	$154.82	$82.2	-$72.62
└ No leg	Noavg 68.1¢	$49.3	$42.71	-$6.59
MA MadridTimeCTR	Yesavg 70.4¢	$163.59	$95.29	-$68.3	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
rayvanmechelen<$100	Noavg 61¢	$20	$19.34	-$0.66	53% 2714-2387 (5101)
AR ARocky33CTR<$100	Yesavg 91.2¢	$13.86	$8.01	-$5.86	76% 4579-1422 (6001)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 94¢	$11.07	$4.83	-$6.24	50% 21821-22062 (43883)
RO Rocky31CTR<$100	Yesavg 54¢	$3.6	$2.73	-$0.87	75% 1985-674 (2659)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 39¢	$3.9	$1.01	+$0.05	58% 47904-34520 (82424)

Flaznorp

Invested

$1,480.21

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$15.38

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

LightParadoxCTR

Yes

Invested

$576.39

Value

$405.87

PnL

-$170.52

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

Pan9X

Invested

$196.39

Value

$321.34

PnL

+$132.02

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$229.43

Value

$229.19

PnL

+$102.47

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Both legs:

No$81.2931.4¢+$71.39

Yes$83.8744.9¢+$31.07

oieshfn345

Invested

$76.62

Value

$227.63

PnL

+$151.02

Record

58%

2117-1562 (3679)

GaditimaCTR

Yes

Invested

$199.87

Value

$153.75

PnL

-$46.12

Record

47%

7503-8319 (15822)

VenusianCTR

Yes

Invested

$129.93

Value

$146.31

PnL

+$16.38

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$108.06

Value

$136.2

PnL

+$28.14

Record

49%

15008-15929 (30937)

SnakeBall

Invested

$2.56

Value

$132.23

PnL

+$129.67

Record

51%

38648-37820 (76468)

LimousinARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$204.12

Value

$124.91

PnL

-$79.21

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

Both legs:

Yes$154.8277.2¢-$72.62

No$49.368.1¢-$6.59

MadridTimeCTR

Yes

Invested

$163.59

Value

$95.29

PnL

-$68.3

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

rayvanmechelen<$100

Invested

$20

Value

$19.34

PnL

-$0.66

Record

53%

2714-2387 (5101)

ARocky33CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.86

Value

$8.01

PnL

-$5.86

Record

76%

4579-1422 (6001)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.07

Value

$4.83

PnL

-$6.24

Record

50%

21821-22062 (43883)

Rocky31CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.6

Value

$2.73

PnL

-$0.87

Record

75%

1985-674 (2659)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.9

Value

$1.01

PnL

+$0.05

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 59%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

6 of 14 top traders (43%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.2%

59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$63.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

163.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.