Will CD Leganés win on 2026-11-02?

12 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 74¢ · $68K held · ends Nov 2

Yes27¢No73¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$67.5K

Combined PnL

$199.77

Smart Money Entry

75.1¢ → 73.5¢

-2% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 15 top traders (80%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes27%

No74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$20.3K

Total Shares78,147

Combined PnL+$933.85

No12 traders

Total Value$47.2K

Total Shares62,949

Combined PnL-$734.09

Yes — 20%No — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 46%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

81% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 46% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA marchettamakerCTR	Yesavg 24.9¢	$18.9K	$19.7K	+$829.41	28% 15-39 (54)
RN1	Noavg 74.7¢	$11.2K	$11.0K	-$174.99	54% 58149-50375 (108524)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542	Noavg 75¢	$10.5K	$10.4K	-$140	47% 2622-2923 (5545)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Noavg 74.7¢	$8.6K	$8.5K	-$57.72	50% 2583-2581 (5164)
CA Cannae	Noavg 75.3¢	$7.8K	$7.7K	-$133.49	53% 16265-14441 (30706)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 75.6¢	$3.7K	$3.6K	-$90.35	50% 26430-26259 (52689)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 76.8¢	$2.6K	$2.5K	-$63.7	51% 17616-16619 (34235)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 76¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$54.64	49% 13479-14176 (27655)
KY Kyn008CTR	Yesavg 22¢	$511.4	$604.39	+$104.61	49% 272-283 (555)
FE ferdinand2	Noavg 78¢	$605.67	$574.61	-$3.88	51% 1000-963 (1963)
MO mouzsynapse	Noavg 76¢	$535.82	$521.71	-$10.58	40% 1074-1634 (2708)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Noavg 74.6¢	$337.22	$334.48	-$2.74	46% 9227-10938 (20165)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Noavg 74¢	$296	$294	-$2	51% 1594-1534 (3128)
TO topdogbigboi	Noavg 74¢	$148	$148	+$0	47% 10056-11172 (21228)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$2.75	$2.86	-$0.16	50% 7247-7347 (14594)

marchettamakerCTR

Yes

Invested

$18,881.54

Value

$19.7K

PnL

+$829.41

Record

28%

15-39 (54)

RN1

Invested

$11,199.99

Value

$11.0K

PnL

-$174.99

Record

54%

58149-50375 (108524)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542

Invested

$10,500

Value

$10.4K

PnL

-$140

Record

47%

2622-2923 (5545)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Invested

$8,600.71

Value

$8.5K

PnL

-$57.72

Record

50%

2583-2581 (5164)

Cannae

Invested

$7,796.03

Value

$7.7K

PnL

-$133.49

Record

53%

16265-14441 (30706)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$3,694.78

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$90.35

Record

50%

26430-26259 (52689)

Flaznorp

Invested

$2,585.25

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$63.7

Record

51%

17616-16619 (34235)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$1,660.98

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$54.64

Record

49%

13479-14176 (27655)

Kyn008CTR

Yes

Invested

$511.4

Value

$604.39

PnL

+$104.61

Record

49%

272-283 (555)

ferdinand2

Invested

$605.67

Value

$574.61

PnL

-$3.88

Record

51%

1000-963 (1963)

mouzsynapse

Invested

$535.82

Value

$521.71

PnL

-$10.58

Record

40%

1074-1634 (2708)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Invested

$337.22

Value

$334.48

PnL

-$2.74

Record

46%

9227-10938 (20165)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Invested

$296

Value

$294

PnL

-$2

Record

51%

1594-1534 (3128)

topdogbigboi

Invested

$148

Value

$148

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

10056-11172 (21228)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.75

Value

$2.86

PnL

-$0.16

Record

50%

7247-7347 (14594)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 74%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 15 top traders (80%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 46%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

81% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 46% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.4%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.