Will ES Troyes AC win on 2026-11-07?

10 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 96¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 7

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

$55.01

Smart Money Entry

93.3¢ → 95.7¢

+3% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 18 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares3,135

Combined PnL+$75.91

Yes8 traders

Total Value$754.73

Total Shares17,492

Combined PnL-$20.9

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Mature

48h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (17 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 6

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 56% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 53% · 17

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NM NM-P	Noavg 96.2¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$5.54	64% 10163-5703 (15866)
GC GC-P	Noavg 96.2¢	$937.13	$929.88	-$7.24	64% 10165-5759 (15924)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 96.3¢	$374.98	$373.07	-$0.87	51% 38171-37411 (75582)
CA Cannae	Noavg 96.2¢	$331.85	$329.31	-$2.18	53% 16960-15081 (32041)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles	Noavg 50¢	$100	$191	+$91.2	—
LI LimousinCTR	Yesavg 4.6¢	$154.42	$160.04	+$5.62	50% 1808-1796 (3604)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Yesavg 4.3¢	$147.77	$154.71	-$3.38	49% 14964-15854 (30818)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 4.6¢	$153.94	$140.64	-$13.31	51% 26991-25572 (52563)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 4.5¢	$123.49	$118.9	-$4.59	50% 28862-28672 (57534)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.6¢	$99.47	$93.95	-$5.52	49% 1790-1872 (3662)
MA MadridTimeARB<$100	Yesavg 4.4¢	$81.48	$81.02	-$0.46	48% 1730-1861 (3591)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 4.4¢	$44.01	$43.5	-$0.51
└ No leg	Noavg 95.5¢	$37.47	$37.52	+$0.05
38 38791873984189	Noavg 95.5¢	$233.73	$72.3	+$0.55	48% 62298-67159 (129457)
HI hi774cCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.4¢	$70.66	$70.33	-$0.34	46% 5301-6140 (11441)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Noavg 95.8¢	$45.92	$45.77	-$0.15	48% 7443-7977 (15420)
DV dv-pm<$100	Noavg 96.5¢	$19.3	$19.1	-$0.14	48% 3364-3589 (6953)
PU purplegatto<$100	Noavg 95.7¢	$18.13	$18.09	+$0.01	49% 6375-6549 (12924)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 96.2¢	$15.58	$15.84	+$0.27	50% 26346-25970 (52316)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.6¢	$12.94	$13.26	+$0.32	49% 1756-1850 (3606)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.9¢	$2.71	$2.91	+$0.29	50% 21519-21799 (43318)

NM-P

Invested

$1,111.53

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$5.54

Record

64%

10163-5703 (15866)

GC-P

Invested

$937.13

Value

$929.88

PnL

-$7.24

Record

64%

10165-5759 (15924)

SnakeBall

Invested

$374.98

Value

$373.07

PnL

-$0.87

Record

51%

38171-37411 (75582)

Cannae

Invested

$331.85

Value

$329.31

PnL

-$2.18

Record

53%

16960-15081 (32041)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singles

Invested

$100

Value

$191

PnL

+$91.2

Record

—

LimousinCTR

Yes

Invested

$154.42

Value

$160.04

PnL

+$5.62

Record

50%

1808-1796 (3604)

LuckyLooCTR

Yes

Invested

$147.77

Value

$154.71

PnL

-$3.38

Record

49%

14964-15854 (30818)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$153.94

Value

$140.64

PnL

-$13.31

Record

51%

26991-25572 (52563)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$123.49

Value

$118.9

PnL

-$4.59

Record

50%

28862-28672 (57534)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$99.47

Value

$93.95

PnL

-$5.52

Record

49%

1790-1872 (3662)

MadridTimeARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$81.48

Value

$81.02

PnL

-$0.46

Record

48%

1730-1861 (3591)

Both legs:

Yes$44.014.4¢-$0.51

No$37.4795.5¢+$0.05

38791873984189

Invested

$233.73

Value

$72.3

PnL

+$0.55

Record

48%

62298-67159 (129457)

hi774cCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$70.66

Value

$70.33

PnL

-$0.34

Record

46%

5301-6140 (11441)

Oddstorm<$100

Invested

$45.92

Value

$45.77

PnL

-$0.15

Record

48%

7443-7977 (15420)

dv-pm<$100

Invested

$19.3

Value

$19.1

PnL

-$0.14

Record

48%

3364-3589 (6953)

purplegatto<$100

Invested

$18.13

Value

$18.09

PnL

+$0.01

Record

49%

6375-6549 (12924)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$15.58

Value

$15.84

PnL

+$0.27

Record

50%

26346-25970 (52316)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.94

Value

$13.26

PnL

+$0.32

Record

49%

1756-1850 (3606)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.71

Value

$2.91

PnL

+$0.29

Record

50%

21519-21799 (43318)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 18 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Mature

48h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (17 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 6

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 56% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 53% · 17

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.8%

95.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.