M25 Heraklion: Henri Haupt vs Alexandre Aubriot

8 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Alexandre Aubriot (53%) · Alexandre Aubriot at 100¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 11

Henri Haupt<1¢Alexandre Aubriot>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Alexandre Aubriot

Consensus Traders

Alexandre Aubriot 53%

Total Value

$8.0K

Combined PnL

$-1.0K

Smart Money Entry

87.9¢ → 99.5¢

+13% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralAlexandre Aubriot at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Alexandre Aubriot

8 of 15 top traders (53%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Henri Haupt1%

Alexandre Aubriot100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Alexandre Aubriot8 traders

Total Value$6.9K

Total Shares7,003

Combined PnL+$688.79

Henri Haupt7 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares10,511

Combined PnL$-1.7K

Alexandre Aubriot — 53%Henri Haupt — 47%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0x5fD2D9C60781D711721145Ff2b906aA63a18	Alexandre Aubriotavg 99¢	$4.0K	$4.0K	+$17.49	66% 618-324 (942)
OM omnibus-076daa	Alexandre Aubriotavg 70.2¢	$1.7K	$2.5K	+$705.35	50% 20715-20970 (41685)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Henri Hauptavg 47.2¢	$1.8K	$867.83	-$957	51% 24202-22938 (47140)
poshposh	Alexandre Aubriotavg 78¢	$150.58	$190.69	+$40.11	57% 12255-9317 (21572)
CI cigarettes	Alexandre Aubriotavg 98.3¢	$241.57	$150.29	-$91.28	53% 22496-19712 (42208)
38 38791873984189CTR	Henri Hauptavg 49¢	$395.42	$99.62	-$132.64	48% 59224-63218 (122442)
RN1CTR	Henri Hauptavg 36.6¢	$626.23	$54.32	-$571.9	53% 60045-52422 (112467)
US User7429<$100	Alexandre Aubriotavg 71.4¢	$37.04	$50.03	+$12.99	56% 8920-7126 (16046)
PA pauleta23<$100	Alexandre Aubriotavg 99¢	$39.94	$39.8	-$0.14	66% 23982-12171 (36153)
LR lryyy<$100	Alexandre Aubriotavg 78¢	$18.92	$22.4	+$3.48	47% 9215-10335 (19550)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Alexandre Aubriotavg 77.5¢	$15.5	$16.3	+$0.8	65% 5169-2803 (7972)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Henri Hauptavg 15.9¢	$11.59	$13.79	+$2.19	47% 11065-12394 (23459)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR<$100	Henri Hauptavg 1¢	$23.7	$12.42	-$11.28	53% 3361-2944 (6305)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Henri Hauptavg 1.4¢	$24.89	$9.67	-$15.22	59% 31848-22485 (54333)
IW iWasEnoughCTR<$100	Henri Hauptavg 1.4¢	$23.18	$8.95	-$14.23	51% 11897-11293 (23190)

0x5fD2D9C60781D711721145Ff2b906aA63a18

Alexandre Aubriot

Invested

$4,000.34

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$17.49

Record

66%

618-324 (942)

omnibus-076daa

Alexandre Aubriot

Invested

$1,745.96

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$705.35

Record

50%

20715-20970 (41685)

FlaznorpCTR

Henri Haupt

Invested

$1,824.83

Value

$867.83

PnL

-$957

Record

51%

24202-22938 (47140)

poshposh

Alexandre Aubriot

Invested

$150.58

Value

$190.69

PnL

+$40.11

Record

57%

12255-9317 (21572)

cigarettes

Alexandre Aubriot

Invested

$241.57

Value

$150.29

PnL

-$91.28

Record

53%

22496-19712 (42208)

38791873984189CTR

Henri Haupt

Invested

$395.42

Value

$99.62

PnL

-$132.64

Record

48%

59224-63218 (122442)

RN1CTR

Henri Haupt

Invested

$626.23

Value

$54.32

PnL

-$571.9

Record

53%

60045-52422 (112467)

User7429<$100

Alexandre Aubriot

Invested

$37.04

Value

$50.03

PnL

+$12.99

Record

56%

8920-7126 (16046)

pauleta23<$100

Alexandre Aubriot

Invested

$39.94

Value

$39.8

PnL

-$0.14

Record

66%

23982-12171 (36153)

lryyy<$100

Alexandre Aubriot

Invested

$18.92

Value

$22.4

PnL

+$3.48

Record

47%

9215-10335 (19550)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Alexandre Aubriot

Invested

$15.5

Value

$16.3

PnL

+$0.8

Record

65%

5169-2803 (7972)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Henri Haupt

Invested

$11.59

Value

$13.79

PnL

+$2.19

Record

47%

11065-12394 (23459)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR<$100

Henri Haupt

Invested

$23.7

Value

$12.42

PnL

-$11.28

Record

53%

3361-2944 (6305)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Henri Haupt

Invested

$24.89

Value

$9.67

PnL

-$15.22

Record

59%

31848-22485 (54333)

iWasEnoughCTR<$100

Henri Haupt

Invested

$23.18

Value

$8.95

PnL

-$14.23

Record

51%

11897-11293 (23190)

Research grade

NeutralAlexandre Aubriot at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Alexandre Aubriot

8 of 15 top traders (53%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Alexandre Aubriot wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.