W50 Heraklion: Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur vs Elena Korokozidi
6 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur (38%) · Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur
16
Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur 38%
$2.4K
$284.02
75.6¢ → 100¢
+32% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralJoelle Lilly Sophie Steur at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 16 top traders (38%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ST stepanka1234 | Joelle Lilly Sophie Steuravg 68.5¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$397.52 | 76% 51-16 (67) |
LO looppau | Joelle Lilly Sophie Steuravg 99.9¢ | $354.28 | $354.45 | +$0.18 | 99% 12155-82 (12237) |
 RN1 | Joelle Lilly Sophie Steuravg 70¢ | $267.1 | $256.93 | -$10.17 | 53% 60028-52398 (112426) |
 0x5fD2D9C60781D711721145Ff2b906aA63a18 | Joelle Lilly Sophie Steuravg 92.1¢ | $244 | $174.44 | +$10.52 | 66% 618-324 (942) |
FL Flaznorp | Joelle Lilly Sophie Steuravg 71.9¢ | $146.54 | $143.82 | -$2.72 | 51% 24195-22931 (47126) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Elena Korokozidiavg 19.1¢ | $61.07 | $35.1 | -$25.97 | 47% 11057-12380 (23437) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Elena Korokozidiavg 27¢ | $35.51 | $30.96 | -$4.27 | 50% 20688-20949 (41637) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100 | Joelle Lilly Sophie Steuravg 67¢ | $19.15 | $23.04 | +$3.88 | 46% 1380-1627 (3007) |
LR lryyyCTR<$100 | Elena Korokozidiavg 32¢ | $56.32 | $19.36 | -$32.56 | 47% 9211-10331 (19542) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Elena Korokozidiavg 33¢ | $38.79 | $12.93 | -$25.86 | 57% 12245-9305 (21550) |
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100 | Elena Korokozidiavg 11.1¢ | $21.55 | $8.25 | +$2.96 | 60% 4336-2908 (7244) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Elena Korokozidiavg 31¢ | $15.5 | $5.5 | -$10 | 53% 22473-19696 (42169) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100 | Elena Korokozidiavg 32.1¢ | $8.02 | $2.75 | -$5.27 | 59% 31832-22466 (54298) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Elena Korokozidiavg 36¢ | $4.68 | $1.43 | -$3.25 | 49% 14322-14996 (29318) |
IW iWasEnoughCTR<$100 | Elena Korokozidiavg 31¢ | $24.9 | $0.87 | -$6.85 | 51% 11884-11279 (23163) |
EU EulhunterCTR<$100 | Elena Korokozidiavg 30¢ | $15 | $0.37 | -$4.12 | 54% 6170-5215 (11385) |
Invested
$1,348.05
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$397.52
Record
76%
51-16 (67)
Invested
$354.28
Value
$354.45
PnL
+$0.18
Record
99%
12155-82 (12237)
RN1Invested
$267.1
Value
$256.93
PnL
-$10.17
Record
53%
60028-52398 (112426)
0x5fD2D9C60781D711721145Ff2b906aA63a18Invested
$244
Value
$174.44
PnL
+$10.52
Record
66%
618-324 (942)
Invested
$146.54
Value
$143.82
PnL
-$2.72
Record
51%
24195-22931 (47126)
Invested
$61.07
Value
$35.1
PnL
-$25.97
Record
47%
11057-12380 (23437)
Invested
$35.51
Value
$30.96
PnL
-$4.27
Record
50%
20688-20949 (41637)
Invested
$19.15
Value
$23.04
PnL
+$3.88
Record
46%
1380-1627 (3007)
Invested
$56.32
Value
$19.36
PnL
-$32.56
Record
47%
9211-10331 (19542)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$38.79
Value
$12.93
PnL
-$25.86
Record
57%
12245-9305 (21550)
Invested
$21.55
Value
$8.25
PnL
+$2.96
Record
60%
4336-2908 (7244)
Invested
$15.5
Value
$5.5
PnL
-$10
Record
53%
22473-19696 (42169)
Invested
$8.02
Value
$2.75
PnL
-$5.27
Record
59%
31832-22466 (54298)
Invested
$4.68
Value
$1.43
PnL
-$3.25
Record
49%
14322-14996 (29318)
Invested
$24.9
Value
$0.87
PnL
-$6.85
Record
51%
11884-11279 (23163)
Invested
$15
Value
$0.37
PnL
-$4.12
Record
54%
6170-5215 (11385)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
stepanka1234
Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur — $1.3K
looppau
Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur — $354.45
RN1
Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur — $256.93
0x5fD2D9C60781D711721145Ff2b906aA63a18
Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur — $174.44
Flaznorp
Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur — $143.82
topdogbigboi
CTRElena Korokozidi — $35.1
omnibus-076daa
CTRElena Korokozidi — $30.96
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh
Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur — $23.04
lryyy
CTRElena Korokozidi — $19.36
poshposh
CTRElena Korokozidi — $12.93