Will Levante UD win on 2026-11-08?

5 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (31%) · No at 82¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 8

Yes19¢No81¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 31%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.9K

Combined PnL

$116.55

Smart Money Entry

79.8¢ → 81.5¢

+2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 16 top traders (31%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes19%

No82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$6.9K

Total Shares8,539

Combined PnL+$119.92

Yes11 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares5,158

Combined PnL-$3.37

No — 31%Yes — 69%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XW xwingboy	Noavg 80¢	$5.0K	$5.1K	+$93.75	66% 367-188 (555)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 79.6¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$11.87	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
0X 0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276	Noavg 79¢	$730.49	$744.36	+$13.87	67% 3152-1549 (4701)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Noavg 78.7¢	$645.23	$654.41	+$9.18	57% 22219-16567 (38786)
└ No leg	Noavg 78.7¢	$451.51	$455.85	+$4.33
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 20¢	$193.72	$198.56	+$4.84
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 20¢	$435	$445.88	+$10.88	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Noavg 80.2¢	$247.61	$249.8	+$2.19	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
└ No leg	Noavg 80.2¢	$194.32	$195.11	+$0.79
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 19¢	$53.29	$54.7	+$1.4
NM NM-PCTR	Yesavg 20¢	$193.71	$179.18	-$14.53	57% 22329-16593 (38922)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Yesavg 18¢	$132.21	$135.88	+$3.67	46% 1957-2309 (4266)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 20.5¢	$82.36	$82.36	+$0	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$50.67	$51.54	+$0.87	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 20.2¢	$52.2	$47.75	-$4.45	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
PT PT-S7CTR<$100	Yesavg 18.7¢	$32.73	$34.13	+$1.4	46% 3487-4014 (7501)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Yesavg 18.9¢	$23.43	$22.99	-$0.44	55% 3933-3280 (7213)
PA Pan9X<$100	Noavg 79¢	$25	$19.88	+$0.13	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
RN1<$100	Noavg 79¢	$15.26	$15.56	+$0.3	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$8.5	$9.75	+$1.25	53% 15441-13720 (29161)
WA waiermaCTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$10	$8.54	-$1.46	44% 97-123 (220)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$7.29	$6.73	-$0.56	57% 24613-18229 (42842)

xwingboy

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$93.75

Record

66%

367-188 (555)

Flaznorp

Invested

$1,054.81

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$11.87

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276

Invested

$730.49

Value

$744.36

PnL

+$13.87

Record

67%

3152-1549 (4701)

GC-PARB<$100

Invested

$645.23

Value

$654.41

PnL

+$9.18

Record

57%

22219-16567 (38786)

Both legs:

Invested

$435

Value

$445.88

PnL

+$10.88

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Invested

$247.61

Value

$249.8

PnL

+$2.19

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

Both legs:

Invested

$193.71

Value

$179.18

PnL

-$14.53

Record

57%

22329-16593 (38922)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Yes

Invested

$132.21

Value

$135.88

PnL

+$3.67

Record

46%

1957-2309 (4266)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$82.36

Value

$82.36

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$50.67

Value

$51.54

PnL

+$0.87

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$52.2

Value

$47.75

PnL

-$4.45

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

PT-S7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.73

Value

$34.13

PnL

+$1.4

Record

46%

3487-4014 (7501)

Anon455CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.43

Value

$22.99

PnL

-$0.44

Record

55%

3933-3280 (7213)

Pan9X<$100

Invested

$25

Value

$19.88

PnL

+$0.13

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

RN1<$100

Invested

$15.26

Value

$15.56

PnL

+$0.3

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.5

Value

$9.75

PnL

+$1.25

Record

53%

15441-13720 (29161)

waiermaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$8.54

PnL

-$1.46

Record

44%

97-123 (220)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.29

Value

$6.73

PnL

-$0.56

Record

57%

24613-18229 (42842)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 16 top traders (31%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.2%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.