LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Gen.G (BO5) - Worlds Playoffs

14 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Gen.G (82%) · Gen.G at 81¢ · $329K held · ends Nov 8

Invictus Gaming20¢Gen.G80¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Gen.G

Consensus Traders

Gen.G 82%

Total Value

$328.9K

Combined PnL

$475.71

Smart Money Entry

80.1¢ → 80.5¢

+0% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

Research candidateGen.G at 81%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

$100k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +13.2 % a trade (n 91), a small sample. Full year, out of sample: 80 %+ with $100k+ on the side −0.3 % a trade (n 835, 95 % CI −3.8 to +3.4): no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Gen.G

14 of 17 top traders (82%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Invictus Gaming20%

Gen.G81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Gen.G14 traders

Total Value$328.6K

Total Shares409,910

Combined PnL+$487.18

Invictus Gaming3 traders

Total Value$349.93

Total Shares1,831

Combined PnL-$11.47

Gen.G — 82%Invictus Gaming — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Late

50h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

88% of non-arb traders are on Gen.G. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleGen.G 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpGen.G 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrGen.G 93% · 14

Aligned

Hand-pickedGen.G 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Gen.G 93% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
vtcchampion52	Gen.Gavg 80¢	$87.8K	$87.8K	-$23.7	48% 1171-1257 (2428)
RO robloxgamblemaster-2008-10-18	Gen.Gavg 80¢	$74.0K	$74.5K	+$462.66	50% 7665-7810 (15475)
0X 0x709179E7392e59922Ab2D73cb1141698b30096f8-1773173619816	Gen.Gavg 80¢	$59.6K	$59.6K	+$0	50% 5883-5915 (11798)
GA GAMBLINGISCANCER69	Gen.Gavg 80¢	$36.4K	$29.3K	+$182.19	64% 49-27 (76)
TA TAIWANNUMBERONE	Gen.Gavg 80¢	$25.4K	$28.4K	+$177.77	54% 1378-1188 (2566)
AN analdesutructor	Gen.Gavg 81.8¢	$23.5K	$23.0K	-$507.85	53% 201-180 (381)
NI niceqqqqq3	Gen.Gavg 79.8¢	$22.3K	$22.4K	+$190.94	42% 38-52 (90)
DA darkumbreon88	Gen.Gavg 80¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	+$16.47	64% 2035-1134 (3169)
OM omnibus-076daa	Gen.Gavg 81.8¢	$495.97	$485.23	-$10.73	50% 21530-21816 (43346)
SH shibagegeCTR	Invictus Gamingavg 20.8¢	$312	$285	-$7.5	52% 197-184 (381)
nigiri99	Gen.Gavg 81.8¢	$171.72	$155.2	-$0.97	46% 8761-10456 (19217)
38 38791873984189	Gen.Gavg 80¢	$121.6	$121.6	+$0.76	48% 62365-67229 (129594)
Basquetipster	Gen.Gavg 81.8¢	$100.95	$98.77	-$0.62	53% 1791-1560 (3351)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Invictus Gamingavg 20.8¢	$41.39	$39.8	-$1.59	48% 1742-1871 (3613)
GH ghorrock<$100	Gen.Gavg 80¢	$25.68	$25.9	+$0.22	58% 21660-15754 (37414)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Invictus Gamingavg 20.8¢	$27.51	$25.13	-$2.38	50% 1821-1809 (3630)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Gen.Gavg 80¢	$4	$4	+$0.03	52% 8999-8155 (17154)

vtcchampion52

Gen.G

Invested

$87,794.71

Value

$87.8K

PnL

-$23.7

Record

48%

1171-1257 (2428)

robloxgamblemaster-2008-10-18

Gen.G

Invested

$74,025.92

Value

$74.5K

PnL

+$462.66

Record

50%

7665-7810 (15475)

0x709179E7392e59922Ab2D73cb1141698b30096f8-1773173619816

Gen.G

Invested

$59,614.6

Value

$59.6K

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

5883-5915 (11798)

GAMBLINGISCANCER69

Gen.G

Invested

$36,438.43

Value

$29.3K

PnL

+$182.19

Record

64%

49-27 (76)

TAIWANNUMBERONE

Gen.G

Invested

$25,444.46

Value

$28.4K

PnL

+$177.77

Record

54%

1378-1188 (2566)

analdesutructor

Gen.G

Invested

$23,467.85

Value

$23.0K

PnL

-$507.85

Record

53%

201-180 (381)

niceqqqqq3

Gen.G

Invested

$22,290.31

Value

$22.4K

PnL

+$190.94

Record

42%

38-52 (90)

darkumbreon88

Gen.G

Invested

$2,634.88

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$16.47

Record

64%

2035-1134 (3169)

omnibus-076daa

Gen.G

Invested

$495.97

Value

$485.23

PnL

-$10.73

Record

50%

21530-21816 (43346)

shibagegeCTR

Invictus Gaming

Invested

$312

Value

$285

PnL

-$7.5

Record

52%

197-184 (381)

nigiri99

Gen.G

Invested

$171.72

Value

$155.2

PnL

-$0.97

Record

46%

8761-10456 (19217)

38791873984189

Gen.G

Invested

$121.6

Value

$121.6

PnL

+$0.76

Record

48%

62365-67229 (129594)

Basquetipster

Gen.G

Invested

$100.95

Value

$98.77

PnL

-$0.62

Record

53%

1791-1560 (3351)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Invictus Gaming

Invested

$41.39

Value

$39.8

PnL

-$1.59

Record

48%

1742-1871 (3613)

ghorrock<$100

Gen.G

Invested

$25.68

Value

$25.9

PnL

+$0.22

Record

58%

21660-15754 (37414)

LimousinCTR<$100

Invictus Gaming

Invested

$27.51

Value

$25.13

PnL

-$2.38

Record

50%

1821-1809 (3630)

ameisgoat11<$100

Gen.G

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0.03

Record

52%

8999-8155 (17154)

Research grade

Research candidateGen.G at 81%

$100k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +13.2 % a trade (n 91), a small sample. Full year, out of sample: 80 %+ with $100k+ on the side −0.3 % a trade (n 835, 95 % CI −3.8 to +3.4): no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Gen.G

14 of 17 top traders (82%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Late

50h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

88% of non-arb traders are on Gen.G. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleGen.G 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpGen.G 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrGen.G 93% · 14

Aligned

Hand-pickedGen.G 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Gen.G 93% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Gen.G wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.3%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.