Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Nets, while the market favors Mavericks (99%). 3 of 20 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Mavericks (-10.5)

3 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Nets (15%) · Nets at 1.5¢ · $26K held · ends Nov 9

Mavericks99¢Nets1¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Nets

Consensus Traders

Nets 15%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$25.5K

Combined PnL

$-2.3K

Smart Money Entry

51.3¢ → 1.5¢

-97% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidNets at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nets

3 of 20 top traders (15%)Underdog side (market favors Mavericks 99%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Mavericks99%

Nets2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nets3 traders

Total Value$10.3K

Total Shares24,845

Combined PnL$-2.5K

Mavericks17 traders

Total Value$6.2K

Total Shares11,324

Combined PnL+$265.7

Nets — 15%Mavericks — 85%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99CTR	Netsavg 55.9¢	$12.0K	$10.0K	$-2.0K	45% 14434-17741 (32175)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Mavericksavg 59.3¢	$10.2K	$9.1K	$-1.2K	54% 19992-16872 (36864)
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 59.3¢	$7.7K	$7.0K	-$690.38
└ Nets leg	Netsavg 56.7¢	$2.5K	$2.0K	-$473.88
HI hi774c	Mavericksavg 44¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$180.75	46% 5629-6541 (12170)
73 739633786	Mavericksavg 44¢	$978.56	$856.24	-$122.32	44% 442-564 (1006)
FL Flaznorp	Mavericksavg 96.7¢	$797.07	$756.53	-$40.54	52% 47368-44608 (91976)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Mavericksavg 41.5¢	$295.76	$683.89	+$388.13	57% 17059-13038 (30097)
SU SunlineTicker	Mavericksavg 55¢	$727.06	$648.44	-$78.62	54% 5366-4577 (9943)
RN1	Mavericksavg 48.4¢	$295.14	$575.09	+$279.95	53% 70249-61821 (132070)
TA takeormake	Mavericksavg 88.6¢	$273.9	$287.79	+$13.89	52% 5562-5184 (10746)
65 6512395314597884	Mavericksavg 55.1¢	$247.3	$241.63	-$5.67	51% 5685-5538 (11223)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Mavericksavg 38.9¢	$162.73	$158.87	-$3.86	50% 2217-2191 (4408)
38 38791873984189CTR	Netsavg 56.6¢	$273.71	$150.74	-$71.89	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Mavericksavg 49¢	$128.79	$146.65	+$17.86	46% 2028-2381 (4409)
NM NM-P	Mavericksavg 39¢	$136.5	$134.75	-$1.75	58% 22573-16672 (39245)
GC GC-P	Mavericksavg 39¢	$136.5	$134.75	-$1.75	57% 22246-16603 (38849)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Netsavg 18¢	$548.78	$131.1	-$417.68	50% 5216-5115 (10331)
SE sentrio	Mavericksavg 44¢	$132.29	$115.67	-$16.62	50% 27970-27422 (55392)
AN Anon455<$100	Mavericksavg 37¢	$52.01	$83.47	+$31.46	54% 4009-3371 (7380)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Mavericksavg 44.5¢	$80.51	$69.66	-$10.85	50% 48622-48197 (96819)
NO Notradecopy<$100	Mavericksavg 44¢	$20	$17.5	-$2.5	48% 4170-4503 (8673)
PA Pan9X<$100	Mavericksavg 51¢	$31.78	$14.08	-$0.37	52% 27288-24794 (52082)

nigiri99CTR

Nets

Invested

$12,039.58

Value

$10.0K

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

45%

14434-17741 (32175)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$10,222.24

Value

$9.1K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

54%

19992-16872 (36864)

Both legs:

Mavericks$7,710.8559.3¢-$690.38

Nets$2,511.3956.7¢-$473.88

hi774c

Mavericks

Invested

$1,446.04

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$180.75

Record

46%

5629-6541 (12170)

739633786

Mavericks

Invested

$978.56

Value

$856.24

PnL

-$122.32

Record

44%

442-564 (1006)

Flaznorp

Mavericks

Invested

$797.07

Value

$756.53

PnL

-$40.54

Record

52%

47368-44608 (91976)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Mavericks

Invested

$295.76

Value

$683.89

PnL

+$388.13

Record

57%

17059-13038 (30097)

SunlineTicker

Mavericks

Invested

$727.06

Value

$648.44

PnL

-$78.62

Record

54%

5366-4577 (9943)

RN1

Mavericks

Invested

$295.14

Value

$575.09

PnL

+$279.95

Record

53%

70249-61821 (132070)

takeormake

Mavericks

Invested

$273.9

Value

$287.79

PnL

+$13.89

Record

52%

5562-5184 (10746)

6512395314597884

Mavericks

Invested

$247.3

Value

$241.63

PnL

-$5.67

Record

51%

5685-5538 (11223)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Mavericks

Invested

$162.73

Value

$158.87

PnL

-$3.86

Record

50%

2217-2191 (4408)

38791873984189CTR

Nets

Invested

$273.71

Value

$150.74

PnL

-$71.89

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Mavericks

Invested

$128.79

Value

$146.65

PnL

+$17.86

Record

46%

2028-2381 (4409)

NM-P

Mavericks

Invested

$136.5

Value

$134.75

PnL

-$1.75

Record

58%

22573-16672 (39245)

GC-P

Mavericks

Invested

$136.5

Value

$134.75

PnL

-$1.75

Record

57%

22246-16603 (38849)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Nets

Invested

$548.78

Value

$131.1

PnL

-$417.68

Record

50%

5216-5115 (10331)

sentrio

Mavericks

Invested

$132.29

Value

$115.67

PnL

-$16.62

Record

50%

27970-27422 (55392)

Anon455<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$52.01

Value

$83.47

PnL

+$31.46

Record

54%

4009-3371 (7380)

SnakeBall<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$80.51

Value

$69.66

PnL

-$10.85

Record

50%

48622-48197 (96819)

Notradecopy<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$20

Value

$17.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

48%

4170-4503 (8673)

Pan9X<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$31.78

Value

$14.08

PnL

-$0.37

Record

52%

27288-24794 (52082)

Research grade

AvoidNets at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Nets

3 of 20 top traders (15%)Underdog side (market favors Mavericks 99%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.6%

1.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3714.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

3814.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.