Spread: Rockets (-10.5)

4 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Nuggets (24%) · Nuggets at 68¢ · $23K held · ends Nov 10

Rockets32¢Nuggets68¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Nuggets

Consensus Traders

Nuggets 24%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$23.0K

Combined PnL

$764.34

Smart Money Entry

61.9¢ → 68¢

+10% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidNuggets at 68%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nuggets

4 of 17 top traders (24%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Rockets32%

Nuggets68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nuggets4 traders

Total Value$15.7K

Total Shares23,129

Combined PnL+$2.0K

Rockets13 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares14,528

Combined PnL$-1.3K

Nuggets — 24%Rockets — 76%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

24% of non-arb traders are on Nuggets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Hand-pickedRockets 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Rockets 75% · 16

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO ropetard	Nuggetsavg 59¢	$13.4K	$9.9K	+$1.9K	—
nigiri99	Nuggetsavg 66.8¢	$5.7K	$5.8K	+$103.22	—
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Rocketsavg 41¢	$2.6K	$2.3K	-$294.84	—
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 41¢	$2.0K	$1.6K	-$419.4
└ Nuggets leg	Nuggetsavg 56¢	$604.21	$734.17	+$124.56
alpheclabs2CTR	Rocketsavg 40¢	$2.4K	$1.9K	-$480	—
GA GaditimaCTR	Rocketsavg 40¢	$800	$640	-$160	—
VeryLucky888CTR	Rocketsavg 42¢	$690.15	$550.48	-$139.67	—
GC GC-PCTR	Rocketsavg 41.9¢	$586.25	$448	-$138.25	—
NM NM-PCTR	Rocketsavg 41.9¢	$586.25	$448	-$138.25	—
HI hi774cCTR	Rocketsavg 42¢	$481.83	$367.11	-$114.72	—
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Rocketsavg 42.2¢	$237.41	$170.61	-$33.82	—
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 42.2¢	$120.83	$91.52	-$37.31
└ Nuggets leg	Nuggetsavg 65¢	$75.6	$79.09	+$3.49
FL FlaznorpCTR	Rocketsavg 43¢	$156.52	$116.48	-$38.22	—
AU auros2ARB<$100	Nuggetsavg 59¢	$84.1	$83.2	-$0.9	—
└ Nuggets leg	Nuggetsavg 59¢	$47.2	$54.4	+$7.2
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 41¢	$36.9	$28.8	-$8.1
SN SnakeBallCTR	Rocketsavg 43.9¢	$113.68	$82.87	-$30.81	—
RN1CTR	Rocketsavg 43¢	$107.5	$80	-$27.5	—
BA Bagwell306CTR<$100	Rocketsavg 40¢	$39.6	$31.68	-$7.92	—
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186<$100	Nuggetsavg 61.2¢	$14.33	$15.93	+$1.6	—
NO NotradecopyCTR<$100	Rocketsavg 41¢	$20	$15.61	-$4.39	—
PA Pan9X<$100	Nuggetsavg 65¢	$13.3	$12.32	-$0.98	—
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Rocketsavg 40.7¢	$12.2	$9.6	-$2.6	—
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Rocketsavg 39¢	$11.54	$9.47	-$2.07	—

ropetard

Nuggets

Invested

$13,357.5

Value

$9.9K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

—

nigiri99

Nuggets

Invested

$5,664.42

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$103.22

Record

—

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Rockets

Invested

$2,627.21

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$294.84

Record

—

Both legs:

Rockets$2,02341¢-$419.4

Nuggets$604.2156¢+$124.56

alpheclabs2CTR

Rockets

Invested

$2,400

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$480

Record

—

GaditimaCTR

Rockets

Invested

$800

Value

$640

PnL

-$160

Record

—

VeryLucky888CTR

Rockets

Invested

$690.15

Value

$550.48

PnL

-$139.67

Record

—

GC-PCTR

Rockets

Invested

$586.25

Value

$448

PnL

-$138.25

Record

—

NM-PCTR

Rockets

Invested

$586.25

Value

$448

PnL

-$138.25

Record

—

hi774cCTR

Rockets

Invested

$481.83

Value

$367.11

PnL

-$114.72

Record

—

38791873984189ARB<$100

Rockets

Invested

$237.41

Value

$170.61

PnL

-$33.82

Record

—

Both legs:

Rockets$120.8342.2¢-$37.31

Nuggets$75.665¢+$3.49

FlaznorpCTR

Rockets

Invested

$156.52

Value

$116.48

PnL

-$38.22

Record

—

auros2ARB<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$84.1

Value

$83.2

PnL

-$0.9

Record

—

Both legs:

Invested

$113.68

Value

$82.87

PnL

-$30.81

Record

—

RN1CTR

Rockets

Invested

$107.5

Value

$80

PnL

-$27.5

Record

—

Bagwell306CTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$39.6

Value

$31.68

PnL

-$7.92

Record

—

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$14.33

Value

$15.93

PnL

+$1.6

Record

—

NotradecopyCTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$20

Value

$15.61

PnL

-$4.39

Record

—

Pan9X<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$13.3

Value

$12.32

PnL

-$0.98

Record

—

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$12.2

Value

$9.6

PnL

-$2.6

Record

—

OddstormCTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$11.54

Value

$9.47

PnL

-$2.07

Record

—

Research grade

AvoidNuggets at 68%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Nuggets

4 of 17 top traders (24%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

24% of non-arb traders are on Nuggets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Hand-pickedRockets 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Rockets 75% · 16

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nuggets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.1%

68.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$42.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

142.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.