Nuggets vs. Rockets: O/U 218.5

3 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Over (21%) · Over at 55¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 10

Over55¢Under45¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 21%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.5K

Combined PnL

-$102.11

Smart Money Entry

53.1¢ → 54.5¢

+3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 14 top traders (21%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over55%

Under46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$6.9K

Total Shares12,691

Combined PnL+$164.81

Under11 traders

Total Value$6.1K

Total Shares13,438

Combined PnL-$266.92

Over — 21%Under — 79%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
drainedandpoor	Overavg 53.2¢	$6.3K	$6.5K	+$160.26	—
nehcnehcCTR	Underavg 47¢	$4.7K	$4.6K	-$150.99	—
KA KasonWongCTR	Underavg 52¢	$1.0K	$930	-$110	49% 31-32 (63)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Underavg 46.5¢	$511	$509.25	-$1.75	—
└ Under leg	Underavg 46.5¢	$325.5	$318.5	-$7
└ Over leg	Overavg 53¢	$185.5	$190.75	+$5.25
NM NM-PARB<$100	Underavg 46.5¢	$511	$509.25	-$1.75	—
└ Under leg	Underavg 46.5¢	$325.5	$318.5	-$7
└ Over leg	Overavg 53¢	$185.5	$190.75	+$5.25
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 49¢	$732.47	$444.86	+$31.41	54% 20342-17178 (37520)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49¢	$307.02	$334.94	+$27.89
└ Under leg	Underavg 51¢	$120.56	$109.92	+$3.52
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Overavg 52.9¢	$413.45	$417.93	+$4.47	54% 696-601 (1297)
AY ay118CTR	Underavg 46¢	$161.91	$160.15	-$1.76	—
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 45.9¢	$148.04	$146.78	-$1.26	—
RN1CTR	Underavg 46¢	$115	$113.75	-$1.25	—
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$90.62	$89.64	-$0.99	—
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$57.52	$56.87	-$0.65	—
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$33.28	$30.33	-$0.26	—
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$24.99	$25.26	+$0.27	48% 575-623 (1198)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$11.5	$11.38	-$0.13	—
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 51.4¢	$4.15	$4.23	+$0.08	53% 14841-13046 (27887)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Overavg 52¢	$5	$2.68	+$0.08	50% 24147-24262 (48409)

drainedandpoor

Over

Invested

$6,328.08

Value

$6.5K

PnL

+$160.26

Record

—

nehcnehcCTR

Under

Invested

$4,731.02

Value

$4.6K

PnL

-$150.99

Record

—

KasonWongCTR

Under

Invested

$1,040

Value

$930

PnL

-$110

Record

49%

31-32 (63)

GC-PARB<$100

Under

Invested

$511

Value

$509.25

PnL

-$1.75

Record

—

Both legs:

Invested

$511

Value

$509.25

PnL

-$1.75

Record

—

Both legs:

Under$325.546.5¢-$7

Over$185.553¢+$5.25

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$732.47

Value

$444.86

PnL

+$31.41

Record

54%

20342-17178 (37520)

Both legs:

Over$307.0249¢+$27.89

Under$120.5651¢+$3.52

monkeymashingkeyboard

Over

Invested

$413.45

Value

$417.93

PnL

+$4.47

Record

54%

696-601 (1297)

ay118CTR

Under

Invested

$161.91

Value

$160.15

PnL

-$1.76

Record

—

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$148.04

Value

$146.78

PnL

-$1.26

Record

—

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$115

Value

$113.75

PnL

-$1.25

Record

—

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$90.62

Value

$89.64

PnL

-$0.99

Record

—

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$57.52

Value

$56.87

PnL

-$0.65

Record

—

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$33.28

Value

$30.33

PnL

-$0.26

Record

—

Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$24.99

Value

$25.26

PnL

+$0.27

Record

48%

575-623 (1198)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$11.5

Value

$11.38

PnL

-$0.13

Record

—

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.15

Value

$4.23

PnL

+$0.08

Record

53%

14841-13046 (27887)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$2.68

PnL

+$0.08

Record

50%

24147-24262 (48409)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 14 top traders (21%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.