Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (51%). 11 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Pacers vs. Mavericks: O/U 225.5

11 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Over (79%) · Over at 50¢ · $50K held · ends Nov 10

Over50¢Under50¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 79%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$49.8K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

49.2¢ → 49.5¢

+1% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

11 of 14 top traders (79%)Underdog side (market favors Under 51%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares5,939

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Over11 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares9,236

Combined PnL+$31.56

Under — 21%Over — 79%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99ARB<$100	Overavg 49.6¢	$25.3K	$25.4K	+$38.56	45% 14909-18248 (33157)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.6¢	$14.1K	$14.1K	-$14.33
└ Under leg	Underavg 50.3¢	$11.2K	$11.2K	+$52.89
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Underavg 50.3¢	$13.6K	$13.5K	-$105.83	54% 20342-17178 (37520)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50.3¢	$6.8K	$6.9K	+$21.21
└ Over leg	Overavg 50.4¢	$6.8K	$6.7K	-$127.04
SU SunlineTicker	Underavg 49.5¢	$2.4K	$3.4K	+$1.1K	54% 5399-4609 (10008)
RN1CTR	Overavg 49.2¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$11.95	53% 72121-63608 (135729)
FO forecastication4CTR	Overavg 49.1¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$15.17	50% 1635-1617 (3252)
SE sentrioARB<$100	Overavg 49¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$7.42	51% 28858-28213 (57071)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49¢	$821.85	$829.47	+$7.62
└ Under leg	Underavg 50.5¢	$274.15	$273.95	-$0.2
MU Multicoloured-SerfARB<$100	Underavg 49¢	$936.75	$959.67	+$22.93	48% 575-623 (1198)
└ Under leg	Underavg 49¢	$655	$675.05	+$20.05
└ Over leg	Overavg 49¢	$281.75	$284.63	+$2.88
73 739633786	Underavg 51.2¢	$564.48	$556.51	-$10.56	44% 452-565 (1017)
BI biying99999ARB<$100	Underavg 50.1¢	$264.67	$266.85	+$2.18	48% 176-188 (364)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50.1¢	$178.98	$180.29	+$1.31
└ Over leg	Overavg 49¢	$85.69	$86.57	+$0.87
65 6512395314597884CTR	Overavg 49.3¢	$211.5	$212.36	+$0.86	51% 6120-5875 (11995)
alpheclabs2CTR	Overavg 49¢	$156.8	$158.4	+$1.6	47% 1783-1996 (3779)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 49¢	$156.64	$158.18	+$1.54	58% 53852-38329 (92181)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 50.3¢	$70.34	$69.29	-$1.05	48% 72263-78012 (150275)
PA Pan9XCTR	Overavg 50¢	$120.04	$66.02	-$1.16	53% 28430-25699 (54129)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 50¢	$48.74	$36.92	+$0.61	57% 25537-19073 (44610)
AU auros2CTR	Overavg 49¢	$126.95	$27.23	+$0.28	26% 6-17 (23)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR	Overavg 50¢	$498	$25.22	+$2.23	57% 215-161 (376)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$9.9	$10	+$0.1	50% 8680-8849 (17529)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$4.9	$4.95	+$0.05	56% 9043-7128 (16171)

nigiri99ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$25,316.15

Value

$25.4K

PnL

+$38.56

Record

45%

14909-18248 (33157)

Both legs:

Over$14,129.2649.6¢-$14.33

Under$11,186.8950.3¢+$52.89

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Under

Invested

$13,642.84

Value

$13.5K

PnL

-$105.83

Record

54%

20342-17178 (37520)

Both legs:

Under$6,836.8750.3¢+$21.21

Over$6,805.9750.4¢-$127.04

SunlineTicker

Under

Invested

$2,357.24

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

54%

5399-4609 (10008)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$1,913.97

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$11.95

Record

53%

72121-63608 (135729)

forecastication4CTR

Over

Invested

$1,907.14

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$15.17

Record

50%

1635-1617 (3252)

sentrioARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,096

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$7.42

Record

51%

28858-28213 (57071)

Both legs:

Over$821.8549¢+$7.62

Under$274.1550.5¢-$0.2

Multicoloured-SerfARB<$100

Under

Invested

$936.75

Value

$959.67

PnL

+$22.93

Record

48%

575-623 (1198)

Both legs:

Invested

$564.48

Value

$556.51

PnL

-$10.56

Record

44%

452-565 (1017)

biying99999ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$264.67

Value

$266.85

PnL

+$2.18

Record

48%

176-188 (364)

Both legs:

Under$178.9850.1¢+$1.31

Over$85.6949¢+$0.87

6512395314597884CTR

Over

Invested

$211.5

Value

$212.36

PnL

+$0.86

Record

51%

6120-5875 (11995)

alpheclabs2CTR

Over

Invested

$156.8

Value

$158.4

PnL

+$1.6

Record

47%

1783-1996 (3779)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$156.64

Value

$158.18

PnL

+$1.54

Record

58%

53852-38329 (92181)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$70.34

Value

$69.29

PnL

-$1.05

Record

48%

72263-78012 (150275)

Pan9XCTR

Over

Invested

$120.04

Value

$66.02

PnL

-$1.16

Record

53%

28430-25699 (54129)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$48.74

Value

$36.92

PnL

+$0.61

Record

57%

25537-19073 (44610)

auros2CTR

Over

Invested

$126.95

Value

$27.23

PnL

+$0.28

Record

26%

6-17 (23)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR

Over

Invested

$498

Value

$25.22

PnL

+$2.23

Record

57%

215-161 (376)

RLWGCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.9

Value

$10

PnL

+$0.1

Record

50%

8680-8849 (17529)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.9

Value

$4.95

PnL

+$0.05

Record

56%

9043-7128 (16171)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

11 of 14 top traders (79%)Underdog side (market favors Under 51%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.