Grizzlies vs. Raptors: O/U 226.5

6 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 54¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 10

Over47¢Under53¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.0K

Combined PnL

$269.75

Smart Money Entry

51¢ → 53.5¢

+5% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 18 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over47%

Under54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$6.8K

Total Shares12,641

Combined PnL+$282.67

Over12 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares3,705

Combined PnL-$12.92

Under — 33%Over — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 64% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Underavg 50.5¢	$2.8K	$3.0K	+$163.98	43% 28-37 (65)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 53¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$26.12	30% 105-246 (351)
JO JoeyAroyyOO	Underavg 46.6¢	$726.51	$818.56	+$92.05	0% 0-42 (42)
HI hi774cCTR	Overavg 53¢	$429.64	$435.02	+$5.06	3% 9-249 (258)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 53.5¢	$420.35	$388.14	-$29.82	49% 383-404 (787)
└ Over leg	Overavg 53.5¢	$314.92	$273.65	-$41.29
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.1¢	$103.02	$114.49	+$11.47
0xheavy888CTR	Overavg 48.7¢	$365	$363.75	-$1.25	69% 29-13 (42)
RN1CTR	Overavg 50.3¢	$377.5	$363.75	-$13.75	54% 233-201 (434)
GC GC-PCTR	Overavg 49¢	$171.5	$173.25	+$1.75	5% 11-190 (201)
NM NM-PCTR	Overavg 49¢	$171.5	$173.25	+$1.75	6% 11-164 (175)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 48.9¢	$154.56	$153.6	-$0.96	30% 29-67 (96)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 54¢	$135	$133.75	-$1.25	49% 60-63 (123)
AN Anon455CTR	Overavg 49¢	$122.2	$123.44	+$1.25	48% 82-90 (172)
BI biying99999CTR<$100	Overavg 48.5¢	$59.65	$59.66	+$0	6% 2-34 (36)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 54¢	$43.13	$31.95	-$5.54	48% 173-188 (361)
LI Limousin<$100	Underavg 43¢	$14.16	$15.31	+$1.15	24% 90-282 (372)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Overavg 57.3¢	$11.41	$10.75	-$0.76	52% 242-224 (466)
MA MadridTime<$100	Underavg 42¢	$5.75	$6.07	+$0.33	25% 86-262 (348)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 57.5¢	$5.55	$5.35	-$0.2	23% 49-165 (214)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 53¢	$2.65	$2.68	+$0.03	18% 42-190 (232)

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$2,802.6

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$163.98

Record

43%

28-37 (65)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$2,768.89

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$26.12

Record

30%

105-246 (351)

JoeyAroyyOO

Under

Invested

$726.51

Value

$818.56

PnL

+$92.05

Record

0-42 (42)

hi774cCTR

Over

Invested

$429.64

Value

$435.02

PnL

+$5.06

Record

9-249 (258)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$420.35

Value

$388.14

PnL

-$29.82

Record

49%

383-404 (787)

Both legs:

Over$314.9253.5¢-$41.29

Under$103.0248.1¢+$11.47

0xheavy888CTR

Over

Invested

$365

Value

$363.75

PnL

-$1.25

Record

69%

29-13 (42)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$377.5

Value

$363.75

PnL

-$13.75

Record

54%

233-201 (434)

GC-PCTR

Over

Invested

$171.5

Value

$173.25

PnL

+$1.75

Record

11-190 (201)

NM-PCTR

Over

Invested

$171.5

Value

$173.25

PnL

+$1.75

Record

11-164 (175)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$154.56

Value

$153.6

PnL

-$0.96

Record

30%

29-67 (96)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$135

Value

$133.75

PnL

-$1.25

Record

49%

60-63 (123)

Anon455CTR

Over

Invested

$122.2

Value

$123.44

PnL

+$1.25

Record

48%

82-90 (172)

biying99999CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$59.65

Value

$59.66

PnL

+$0

Record

2-34 (36)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$43.13

Value

$31.95

PnL

-$5.54

Record

48%

173-188 (361)

Limousin<$100

Under

Invested

$14.16

Value

$15.31

PnL

+$1.15

Record

24%

90-282 (372)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$11.41

Value

$10.75

PnL

-$0.76

Record

52%

242-224 (466)

MadridTime<$100

Under

Invested

$5.75

Value

$6.07

PnL

+$0.33

Record

25%

86-262 (348)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.55

Value

$5.35

PnL

-$0.2

Record

23%

49-165 (214)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.65

Value

$2.68

PnL

+$0.03

Record

18%

42-190 (232)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 18 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 64% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.