Heat vs. Jazz

12 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Heat (63%) · Heat at 78¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 11

Heat78¢Jazz22¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Heat

Consensus Traders

Heat 63%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.6K

Combined PnL

-$40.89

Smart Money Entry

78.1¢ → 77.5¢

-1% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

AvoidHeat at 78%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Heat

12 of 19 top traders (63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Heat78%

Jazz23%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jazz7 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares13,429

Combined PnL+$19.95

Heat12 traders

Total Value$5.5K

Total Shares7,066

Combined PnL-$60.84

Jazz — 37%Heat — 63%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on Heat. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrHeat 62% · 13

Aligned

Top 1000Heat 63% · 19

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Medo3DCTR	Jazzavg 22.5¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$3.67	3% 6-200 (206)
HO HomeRunHazard	Heatavg 77.5¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$1.19	57% 3070-2308 (5378)
nigiri99	Heatavg 79.9¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$54.48	52% 121-112 (233)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Heatavg 78.4¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$27.94	48% 709-765 (1474)
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 78.4¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$20.59
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 22.4¢	$319.95	$313.96	-$7.35
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Heatavg 79¢	$658.04	$659.93	+$1.89	47% 147-166 (313)
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 79¢	$403.73	$393.51	-$10.22
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 21¢	$254.31	$266.42	+$12.11
FL Flaznorp	Heatavg 78¢	$557.94	$550.79	-$7.15	50% 1378-1394 (2772)
NM NM-P	Heatavg 77¢	$385	$387.5	+$2.5	60% 3439-2335 (5774)
GC GC-P	Heatavg 77¢	$385	$387.5	+$2.5	16% 64-346 (410)
SE sentrio	Heatavg 78¢	$358.13	$355.73	-$2.4	29% 154-375 (529)
OD Oddstorm	Heatavg 74.5¢	$154.24	$157.6	+$3.36	14% 15-94 (109)
BO BoomLaLa	Heatavg 77.5¢	$155	$155	+$0	14% 28-177 (205)
TA takeormakeCTR	Jazzavg 21.2¢	$139.02	$147.69	+$8.68	59% 3118-2207 (5325)
HI hi774cCTR	Jazzavg 20¢	$112.84	$124.12	+$11.28	8% 35-419 (454)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Jazzavg 22¢	$102.31	$104.64	+$2.33	34% 161-313 (474)
PU purplegatto<$100	Heatavg 80¢	$68.94	$66.36	-$2.59	69% 2572-1165 (3737)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Jazzavg 22¢	$66	$66	+$0	52% 5296-4806 (10102)
GH ghorrock<$100	Heatavg 78.2¢	$55.62	$55.12	-$0.5	52% 244-227 (471)
PA Pan9X	Heatavg 75.5¢	$116.67	$43.12	-$0.7	48% 405-439 (844)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Jazzavg 21¢	$27.96	$29.29	+$1.33	24% 204-633 (837)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Jazzavg 22¢	$9.68	$9.68	+$0	51% 3156-3056 (6212)
0xheavy888<$100	Heatavg 79¢	$7.9	$7.7	-$0.2	55% 94-78 (172)

Medo3DCTR

Jazz

Invested

$2,538.64

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$3.67

Record

6-200 (206)

HomeRunHazard

Heat

Invested

$1,882.89

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$1.19

Record

57%

3070-2308 (5378)

nigiri99

Heat

Invested

$1,479.75

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$54.48

Record

52%

121-112 (233)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Heat

Invested

$1,514.36

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$27.94

Record

48%

709-765 (1474)

Both legs:

Heat$1,121.7778.4¢-$20.59

Jazz$319.9522.4¢-$7.35

SnakeBallARB<$100

Heat

Invested

$658.04

Value

$659.93

PnL

+$1.89

Record

47%

147-166 (313)

Both legs:

Heat$403.7379¢-$10.22

Jazz$254.3121¢+$12.11

Flaznorp

Heat

Invested

$557.94

Value

$550.79

PnL

-$7.15

Record

50%

1378-1394 (2772)

NM-P

Heat

Invested

$385

Value

$387.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

60%

3439-2335 (5774)

GC-P

Heat

Invested

$385

Value

$387.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

16%

64-346 (410)

sentrio

Heat

Invested

$358.13

Value

$355.73

PnL

-$2.4

Record

29%

154-375 (529)

Oddstorm

Heat

Invested

$154.24

Value

$157.6

PnL

+$3.36

Record

14%

15-94 (109)

BoomLaLa

Heat

Invested

$155

Value

$155

PnL

+$0

Record

14%

28-177 (205)

takeormakeCTR

Jazz

Invested

$139.02

Value

$147.69

PnL

+$8.68

Record

59%

3118-2207 (5325)

hi774cCTR

Jazz

Invested

$112.84

Value

$124.12

PnL

+$11.28

Record

35-419 (454)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Jazz

Invested

$102.31

Value

$104.64

PnL

+$2.33

Record

34%

161-313 (474)

purplegatto<$100

Heat

Invested

$68.94

Value

$66.36

PnL

-$2.59

Record

69%

2572-1165 (3737)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$66

Value

$66

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

5296-4806 (10102)

ghorrock<$100

Heat

Invested

$55.62

Value

$55.12

PnL

-$0.5

Record

52%

244-227 (471)

Pan9X

Heat

Invested

$116.67

Value

$43.12

PnL

-$0.7

Record

48%

405-439 (844)

VenusianCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$27.96

Value

$29.29

PnL

+$1.33

Record

24%

204-633 (837)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$9.68

Value

$9.68

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

3156-3056 (6212)

0xheavy888<$100

Heat

Invested

$7.9

Value

$7.7

PnL

-$0.2

Record

55%

94-78 (172)

Research grade

AvoidHeat at 78%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Heat

12 of 19 top traders (63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on Heat. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrHeat 62% · 13

Aligned

Top 1000Heat 63% · 19

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Heat wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.