Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (51%). 6 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Heat vs. Jazz: O/U 224.5

6 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (46%) · Under at 50¢ · $17K held · ended Nov 11

Over51¢Under49¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 46%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$17.4K

Combined PnL

-$141.41

Smart Money Entry

49.3¢ → 49.5¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 13 top traders (46%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over51%

Under50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$7.8K

Total Shares15,935

Combined PnL-$74.61

Over7 traders

Total Value$6.8K

Total Shares13,639

Combined PnL-$66.81

Under — 46%Over — 54%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

54% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Under 54% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA marvelousmarvinCTR	Underavg 50¢	$6.7K	$6.7K	+$0	26% 12-35 (47)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 50¢	$6.5K	$6.4K	-$63.68	54% 1662-1438 (3100)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 50.7¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$73.74	58% 3830-2807 (6637)
└ Over leg	Overavg 50.7¢	$617.53	$602.53	-$15
└ Under leg	Underavg 43¢	$507.47	$596.21	+$88.74
HI hi774cCTR	Underavg 45¢	$930.89	$853.3	-$77.59	8% 37-423 (460)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Overavg 56.2¢	$885.63	$850.01	-$35.62	56% 504-395 (899)
└ Over leg	Overavg 56.2¢	$493.77	$515.89	+$22.12
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.4¢	$391.86	$334.12	-$57.74
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 54.2¢	$767.09	$628.9	-$30.49	50% 1562-1566 (3128)
└ Over leg	Overavg 54.2¢	$419	$382.46	-$41.24
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.3¢	$235.7	$246.44	+$10.74
65 6512395314597884	Overavg 51¢	$206.39	$202.49	-$3.9	51% 3173-3073 (6246)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 50¢	$266.64	$122.12	+$7.89	48% 969-1052 (2021)
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$72.12	$72.12	-$0.01
└ Under leg	Underavg 45.6¢	$45.56	$50	+$7.9
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Underavg 51¢	$122.4	$121.2	-$1.2	30% 134-317 (451)
PA Pan9X	Overavg 56.4¢	$147.18	$118.36	+$5.72	49% 450-474 (924)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$66.77	$70.25	+$3.48	28% 299-766 (1065)
TA takeormake<$100	Overavg 54¢	$54.54	$50	-$4.55	59% 3119-2207 (5326)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 54.1¢	$21.89	$16.5	-$0.49	54% 401-336 (737)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100	Underavg 37¢	$6.5	$7.24	+$0.75	54% 217-188 (405)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Overavg 57¢	$2.85	$2.94	+$0.09	62% 2365-1458 (3823)
SE sentrio<$100	Overavg 57¢	$2.85	$2.85	+$0	35% 266-490 (756)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Underavg 42¢	$1.93	$1.89	-$0.03	57% 3075-2312 (5387)

marvelousmarvinCTR

Under

Invested

$6,732.78

Value

$6.7K

PnL

+$0

Record

26%

12-35 (47)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$6,473.28

Value

$6.4K

PnL

-$63.68

Record

54%

1662-1438 (3100)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,125

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$73.74

Record

58%

3830-2807 (6637)

Both legs:

Over$617.5350.7¢-$15

Under$507.4743¢+$88.74

hi774cCTR

Under

Invested

$930.89

Value

$853.3

PnL

-$77.59

Record

37-423 (460)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$885.63

Value

$850.01

PnL

-$35.62

Record

56%

504-395 (899)

Both legs:

Over$493.7756.2¢+$22.12

Under$391.8648.4¢-$57.74

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$767.09

Value

$628.9

PnL

-$30.49

Record

50%

1562-1566 (3128)

Both legs:

Over$41954.2¢-$41.24

Under$235.748.3¢+$10.74

6512395314597884

Over

Invested

$206.39

Value

$202.49

PnL

-$3.9

Record

51%

3173-3073 (6246)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$266.64

Value

$122.12

PnL

+$7.89

Record

48%

969-1052 (2021)

Both legs:

Over$72.1250¢-$0.01

Under$45.5645.6¢+$7.9

justaluckydudeCTR

Under

Invested

$122.4

Value

$121.2

PnL

-$1.2

Record

30%

134-317 (451)

Pan9X

Over

Invested

$147.18

Value

$118.36

PnL

+$5.72

Record

49%

450-474 (924)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$66.77

Value

$70.25

PnL

+$3.48

Record

28%

299-766 (1065)

takeormake<$100

Over

Invested

$54.54

Value

$50

PnL

-$4.55

Record

59%

3119-2207 (5326)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$21.89

Value

$16.5

PnL

-$0.49

Record

54%

401-336 (737)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.5

Value

$7.24

PnL

+$0.75

Record

54%

217-188 (405)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Over

Invested

$2.85

Value

$2.94

PnL

+$0.09

Record

62%

2365-1458 (3823)

sentrio<$100

Over

Invested

$2.85

Value

$2.85

PnL

+$0

Record

35%

266-490 (756)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.93

Value

$1.89

PnL

-$0.03

Record

57%

3075-2312 (5387)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 13 top traders (46%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

54% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Under 54% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.