Heat vs. Jazz: O/U 228.5

4 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Over (29%) · Over at 52¢ · $58K held · ends Nov 11

Over52¢Under48¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 29%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$57.8K

Combined PnL

$690.16

Smart Money Entry

50¢ → 51.5¢

+3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 14 top traders (29%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over52%

Under49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$37.5K

Total Shares72,669

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Under10 traders

Total Value$19.0K

Total Shares38,875

Combined PnL-$363.84

Over — 29%Under — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-61 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 75% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 69% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Overavg 50¢	$19.0K	$19.6K	+$570.2	51% 3672-3499 (7171)
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Overavg 50.1¢	$12.9K	$13.3K	+$352.04	54% 514-436 (950)
JO JoeyAroyyOOCTR	Underavg 50¢	$13.1K	$12.8K	-$394.46	49% 95-99 (194)
HI hi774c	Overavg 50¢	$4.4K	$4.6K	+$131.39	8% 35-419 (454)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 48¢	$3.5K	$3.6K	+$74.47	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$21.82	25% 210-628 (838)
KA KasonWongCTR	Underavg 50¢	$1.0K	$980	-$20	12% 3-22 (25)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Underavg 49¢	$615.02	$619.11	+$4.09	60% 3440-2335 (5775)
└ Under leg	Underavg 49¢	$352.52	$348.73	-$3.79
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$262.5	$270.38	+$7.88
GC GC-PARB<$100	Underavg 49¢	$535	$537.26	+$2.26	16% 65-346 (411)
└ Under leg	Underavg 49¢	$343	$339.5	-$3.5
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$192	$197.76	+$5.76
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 49¢	$404.92	$404.92	-$0	47% 147-167 (314)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 49.8¢	$205.63	$205.39	+$5.76	48% 802-884 (1686)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.8¢	$148.51	$153.5	+$4.99
└ Under leg	Underavg 48¢	$51.36	$51.89	+$0.77
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 49¢	$155.34	$151.48	-$1.36	48% 223-237 (460)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 50.5¢	$36.8	$24.37	-$0.49	51% 266-256 (522)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 50¢	$12.5	$12.88	+$0.38	48% 414-448 (862)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$4.42	$4.42	+$0	25% 210-646 (856)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 52¢	$2.6	$2.45	-$0.15	30% 161-379 (540)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$2.45	$2.43	-$0.03	23% 150-497 (647)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Over

Invested

$19,006.68

Value

$19.6K

PnL

+$570.2

Record

51%

3672-3499 (7171)

monkeymashingkeyboard

Over

Invested

$12,939.9

Value

$13.3K

PnL

+$352.04

Record

54%

514-436 (950)

JoeyAroyyOOCTR

Under

Invested

$13,148.7

Value

$12.8K

PnL

-$394.46

Record

49%

95-99 (194)

hi774c

Over

Invested

$4,441.4

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$131.39

Record

35-419 (454)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$3,540.92

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$74.47

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$1,090.96

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$21.82

Record

25%

210-628 (838)

KasonWongCTR

Under

Invested

$1,000

Value

$980

PnL

-$20

Record

12%

3-22 (25)

NM-PARB<$100

Under

Invested

$615.02

Value

$619.11

PnL

+$4.09

Record

60%

3440-2335 (5775)

Both legs:

Under$352.5249¢-$3.79

Over$262.550¢+$7.88

GC-PARB<$100

Under

Invested

$535

Value

$537.26

PnL

+$2.26

Record

16%

65-346 (411)

Both legs:

Invested

$404.92

Value

$404.92

PnL

-$0

Record

47%

147-167 (314)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$205.63

Value

$205.39

PnL

+$5.76

Record

48%

802-884 (1686)

Both legs:

Over$148.5149.8¢+$4.99

Under$51.3648¢+$0.77

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$155.34

Value

$151.48

PnL

-$1.36

Record

48%

223-237 (460)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$36.8

Value

$24.37

PnL

-$0.49

Record

51%

266-256 (522)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$12.5

Value

$12.88

PnL

+$0.38

Record

48%

414-448 (862)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.42

Value

$4.42

PnL

+$0

Record

25%

210-646 (856)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.6

Value

$2.45

PnL

-$0.15

Record

30%

161-379 (540)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.43

PnL

-$0.03

Record

23%

150-497 (647)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 14 top traders (29%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-61 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 75% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 69% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.