Bucks vs. Knicks: O/U 223.5

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (58%) · Under at 96¢ · $29K held · ended Nov 11

Over5¢Under95¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 58%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$29.1K

Combined PnL

$887.38

Smart Money Entry

55.5¢ → 95.5¢

+72% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 96%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 12 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over5%

Under96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$24.8K

Total Shares27,039

Combined PnL+$5.4K

Over5 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares18,737

Combined PnL$-4.5K

Under — 58%Over — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Over 55% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU luckycat888888	Underavg 54¢	$5.4K	$9.3K	+$4.0K	8% 8-94 (102)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 56¢	$8.1K	$7.6K	-$474.58	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
HI hi774c	Underavg 56¢	$3.1K	$4.1K	+$1.0K	8% 37-422 (459)
JO JoeyAroyyOOCTR	Overavg 44¢	$6.1K	$3.6K	$-2.5K	49% 95-99 (194)
SU SunlineTicker	Underavg 52¢	$1.4K	$2.5K	+$1.1K	70% 1655-702 (2357)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 73¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	-$195.19	56% 488-383 (871)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 92.7¢	$545.4	$413.97	-$131.43	50% 1504-1508 (3012)
└ Under leg	Underavg 92.7¢	$276.38	$250.39	-$25.99
└ Over leg	Overavg 26.3¢	$269.02	$163.58	-$105.44
SH shaillakhaniCTR	Overavg 48¢	$2.1K	$241.94	$-1.9K	1% 2-191 (193)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 55.2¢	$21.74	$30.06	+$12.28	54% 383-322 (705)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Overavg 46¢	$183.99	$26	-$157.99	10% 88-785 (873)
0xheavy888<$100	Underavg 55¢	$11	$14.8	+$3.8	55% 120-97 (217)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$7.3	$5.33	-$1.97	26% 181-519 (700)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$2.3	$1.3	-$1	28% 279-730 (1009)

luckycat888888

Under

Invested

$5,400

Value

$9.3K

PnL

+$4.0K

Record

8-94 (102)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$8,122.65

Value

$7.6K

PnL

-$474.58

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

hi774c

Under

Invested

$3,113

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

37-422 (459)

JoeyAroyyOOCTR

Over

Invested

$6,126.34

Value

$3.6K

PnL

$-2.5K

Record

49%

95-99 (194)

SunlineTicker

Under

Invested

$1,412.27

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

70%

1655-702 (2357)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$1,312.63

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$195.19

Record

56%

488-383 (871)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$545.4

Value

$413.97

PnL

-$131.43

Record

50%

1504-1508 (3012)

Both legs:

Under$276.3892.7¢-$25.99

Over$269.0226.3¢-$105.44

shaillakhaniCTR

Over

Invested

$2,111.38

Value

$241.94

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

2-191 (193)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$21.74

Value

$30.06

PnL

+$12.28

Record

54%

383-322 (705)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Over

Invested

$183.99

Value

$26

PnL

-$157.99

Record

10%

88-785 (873)

0xheavy888<$100

Under

Invested

$11

Value

$14.8

PnL

+$3.8

Record

55%

120-97 (217)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.3

Value

$5.33

PnL

-$1.97

Record

26%

181-519 (700)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.3

Value

$1.3

PnL

-$1

Record

28%

279-730 (1009)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 96%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 12 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Over 55% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.7%

95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.