Pelicans vs. Warriors: O/U 232.5

10 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 59¢ · $20K held · ends Nov 10

Over42¢Under58¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$20.4K

Combined PnL

$250.33

Smart Money Entry

51¢ → 58.5¢

+15% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 16 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over42%

Under59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under10 traders

Total Value$12.4K

Total Shares21,877

Combined PnL+$1.0K

Over6 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares12,786

Combined PnL-$788.81

Under — 63%Over — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Over) and the top 1000 (15 on Under) disagree here.

sniperOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 67% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA MadridTime	Underavg 50¢	$9.4K	$5.3K	+$611.88	25% 86-262 (348)
nehcnehcCTR	Overavg 50¢	$4.7K	$4.1K	-$614.57	8% 2-23 (25)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 51.4¢	$2.9K	$3.2K	+$178.13	30% 29-67 (96)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Underavg 51¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$27.16	30% 105-246 (351)
└ Under leg	Underavg 51¢	$1.7K	$1.9K	+$49.31
└ Over leg	Overavg 49¢	$723.66	$642.57	-$22.16
nigiri99	Underavg 53.3¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$89.7	43% 28-37 (65)
PP ppku6298CTR	Overavg 48.9¢	$1.6K	$1.4K	-$171.12	0% 0-59 (59)
KA KasonWong	Underavg 51¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$110	— 0-9 (9)
GC GC-P	Underavg 51.3¢	$388.9	$428.25	+$39.35	5% 11-190 (201)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 53.5¢	$325.21	$343.37	+$6.01	45% 38-46 (84)
NM NM-P	Underavg 49¢	$196	$197.75	+$1.75	6% 11-164 (175)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 55.3¢	$119.13	$121.81	+$2.68	52% 242-224 (466)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$56.4	$52.2	-$1.8	49% 60-63 (123)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 51.9¢	$24.83	$24.37	-$0.46	53% 86-75 (161)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 49¢	$11.07	$11.16	+$0.1	23% 49-165 (214)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$9.59	$8.69	-$0.9	69% 29-13 (42)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 45.6¢	$6.03	$5.75	-$0.27	54% 233-201 (434)
AY ay118CTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$1.54	$1.4	-$0.14	0% 0-41 (41)

MadridTime

Under

Invested

$9,413.56

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$611.88

Record

25%

86-262 (348)

nehcnehcCTR

Over

Invested

$4,727.5

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$614.57

Record

2-23 (25)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$2,922.62

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$178.13

Record

30%

29-67 (96)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Under

Invested

$2,472.7

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$27.16

Record

30%

105-246 (351)

Both legs:

Under$1,676.1651¢+$49.31

Over$723.6649¢-$22.16

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$1,491.74

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$89.7

Record

43%

28-37 (65)

ppku6298CTR

Over

Invested

$1,552.25

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$171.12

Record

0-59 (59)

KasonWong

Under

Invested

$1,019.99

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$110

Record

—

0-9 (9)

GC-P

Under

Invested

$388.9

Value

$428.25

PnL

+$39.35

Record

11-190 (201)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$325.21

Value

$343.37

PnL

+$6.01

Record

45%

38-46 (84)

NM-P

Under

Invested

$196

Value

$197.75

PnL

+$1.75

Record

11-164 (175)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$119.13

Value

$121.81

PnL

+$2.68

Record

52%

242-224 (466)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$56.4

Value

$52.2

PnL

-$1.8

Record

49%

60-63 (123)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$24.83

Value

$24.37

PnL

-$0.46

Record

53%

86-75 (161)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$11.07

Value

$11.16

PnL

+$0.1

Record

23%

49-165 (214)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.59

Value

$8.69

PnL

-$0.9

Record

69%

29-13 (42)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.03

Value

$5.75

PnL

-$0.27

Record

54%

233-201 (434)

ay118CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.54

Value

$1.4

PnL

-$0.14

Record

0-41 (41)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 16 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Over) and the top 1000 (15 on Under) disagree here.

sniperOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 67% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.