Magic vs. Kings: O/U 219.5

9 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Under (56%) · Under at 98¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 11

Over2¢Under98¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.2K

Combined PnL

$166.04

Smart Money Entry

59¢ → 98.3¢

+67% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 16 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over2%

Under98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares4,697

Combined PnL+$294.11

Over7 traders

Total Value$942.01

Total Shares1,618

Combined PnL-$128.07

Under — 56%Over — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+28 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Under 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Underavg 66.1¢	$1.3K	$1.5K	+$254.98	58% 3865-2855 (6720)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 79.1¢	$1.4K	$975.53	-$393.14	55% 541-436 (977)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 46.5¢	$848.24	$822.1	+$0.25	50% 1618-1607 (3225)
65 6512395314597884	Underavg 51.1¢	$521.11	$655.8	+$134.68	51% 3187-3102 (6289)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Underavg 42¢	$401.95	$593.35	+$191.4	26% 129-365 (494)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 44¢	$118.89	$167.52	+$48.64	57% 3101-2332 (5433)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Underavg 43¢	$132.09	$146.03	+$13.93	54% 1691-1468 (3159)
└ Under leg	Underavg 43¢	$71.9	$103.67	+$31.77
└ Over leg	Overavg 54¢	$60.19	$42.36	-$17.84
LI LightParadox<$100	Underavg 42¢	$66.77	$98.57	+$31.8	29% 315-788 (1103)
PA Pan9XCTR	Overavg 32.3¢	$121.01	$85.66	-$7.64	49% 498-518 (1016)
LI Limousin<$100	Underavg 44¢	$44	$62	+$18	29% 329-806 (1135)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 36.2¢	$110.19	$28.67	-$66.06	48% 1027-1110 (2137)
BI biying88888<$100	Underavg 44¢	$17.6	$24.8	+$7.2	28% 69-175 (244)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Overavg 32.3¢	$48.5	$4.65	-$43.85	53% 5575-4959 (10534)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 51¢	$2.55	$3.1	+$0.55	54% 445-377 (822)
SU suitcase6628CTR<$100	Overavg 17¢	$10.2	$0.57	-$9.63	64% 188-108 (296)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Overavg 4¢	$1.16	$0.28	-$0.88	62% 2389-1477 (3866)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Overavg 12¢	$0.35	$0.09	-$0.26	49% 200-208 (408)

RN1

Under

Invested

$1,288.82

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$254.98

Record

58%

3865-2855 (6720)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$1,368.67

Value

$975.53

PnL

-$393.14

Record

55%

541-436 (977)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$848.24

Value

$822.1

PnL

+$0.25

Record

50%

1618-1607 (3225)

6512395314597884

Under

Invested

$521.11

Value

$655.8

PnL

+$134.68

Record

51%

3187-3102 (6289)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Under

Invested

$401.95

Value

$593.35

PnL

+$191.4

Record

26%

129-365 (494)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$118.89

Value

$167.52

PnL

+$48.64

Record

57%

3101-2332 (5433)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Under

Invested

$132.09

Value

$146.03

PnL

+$13.93

Record

54%

1691-1468 (3159)

Both legs:

Invested

$66.77

Value

$98.57

PnL

+$31.8

Record

29%

315-788 (1103)

Pan9XCTR

Over

Invested

$121.01

Value

$85.66

PnL

-$7.64

Record

49%

498-518 (1016)

Limousin<$100

Under

Invested

$44

Value

$62

PnL

+$18

Record

29%

329-806 (1135)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$110.19

Value

$28.67

PnL

-$66.06

Record

48%

1027-1110 (2137)

biying88888<$100

Under

Invested

$17.6

Value

$24.8

PnL

+$7.2

Record

28%

69-175 (244)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$48.5

Value

$4.65

PnL

-$43.85

Record

53%

5575-4959 (10534)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$2.55

Value

$3.1

PnL

+$0.55

Record

54%

445-377 (822)

suitcase6628CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10.2

Value

$0.57

PnL

-$9.63

Record

64%

188-108 (296)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.16

Value

$0.28

PnL

-$0.88

Record

62%

2389-1477 (3866)

lryyyCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.35

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$0.26

Record

49%

200-208 (408)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 16 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+28 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Under 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.3%

98.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.