Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Bulls, while the market favors 76ers (56%). 14 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: 76ers (-7.5)

14 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Bulls (88%) · Bulls at 44¢ · $24K held · ended Nov 8

76ers56¢Bulls44¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bulls

Consensus Traders

Bulls 88%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$24.3K

Combined PnL

-$263.93

Smart Money Entry

43.4¢ → 44¢

+1% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

AvoidBulls at 44%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bulls

14 of 16 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors 76ers 56%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

76ers56%

Bulls44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bulls14 traders

Total Value$10.9K

Total Shares25,279

Combined PnL-$369.26

76ers2 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares4,297

Combined PnL+$105.32

Bulls — 88%76ers — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Bulls. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBulls 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrBulls 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedBulls 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Bulls 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Bullsavg 40.6¢	$9.3K	$9.4K	+$86.88	54% 19973-16852 (36825)
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 40.6¢	$7.4K	$7.4K	-$23.64
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 56.2¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$110.52
HI hi774cCTR	Bullsavg 40¢	$4.0K	$4.3K	+$50	46% 5617-6532 (12149)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Bullsavg 49.2¢	$3.1K	$2.7K	-$425.1	46% 1997-2348 (4345)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	76ersavg 55.5¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$79.99	50% 5197-5095 (10292)
nigiri99CTR	Bullsavg 44¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$14.9	45% 14423-17722 (32145)
VeryLucky888CTR	Bullsavg 40.7¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	+$53.83	59% 52363-37089 (89452)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Bullsavg 41.8¢	$521.2	$530.88	+$9.67	57% 22335-16609 (38944)
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 41.8¢	$328.7	$326.13	-$2.58
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 55¢	$192.5	$204.75	+$12.25
AN Anon455CTR	Bullsavg 47.5¢	$475	$435	-$40	54% 3933-3292 (7225)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Bullsavg 40¢	$396	$413.75	+$17.75	57% 22226-16583 (38809)
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 40¢	$200	$212.5	+$12.5
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 56¢	$196	$201.25	+$5.25
MA MadridTimeCTR	Bullsavg 42.4¢	$382.57	$392.73	+$10.16	47% 2072-2311 (4383)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Bullsavg 45.5¢	$283.27	$288.28	+$5.01	51% 5657-5508 (11165)
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 45.5¢	$182	$174	-$8
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 50.1¢	$101.27	$114.28	+$13.01
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	76ersavg 50¢	$400	$200	+$0	56% 195-151 (346)
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 50¢	$100	$113	+$13
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 50¢	$100	$87	-$13
FL Flaznorp	76ersavg 48¢	$143.04	$168.37	+$25.33	51% 47136-44473 (91609)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Bullsavg 43¢	$172	$166	-$6	50% 2205-2180 (4385)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	76ersavg 58.4¢	$219.75	$140.85	-$3.46	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 58.4¢	$76.76	$74.25	-$2.52
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 42.4¢	$64.94	$66.6	-$0.94
SN SnakeBallCTR	Bullsavg 42¢	$120.76	$126.66	+$5.9	50% 48547-48163 (96710)
RN1CTR	Bullsavg 40¢	$100	$106.25	+$6.25	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
DO DolphinBallerCTR	Bullsavg 43¢	$101.86	$104.23	+$2.37	44% 124-156 (280)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Bullsavg 50¢	$100	$85	-$15	53% 13661-12046 (25707)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Bullsavg 42¢	$38.72	$37.34	-$1.38	50% 27934-27381 (55315)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Bullsavg 42¢	$39.61	$22.42	+$4.65	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Bullsavg 42.7¢	$6.4	$6.38	-$0.03	52% 9497-8605 (18102)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Bulls

Invested

$9,266.06

Value

$9.4K

PnL

+$86.88

Record

54%

19973-16852 (36825)

Both legs:

Bulls$7,403.0640.6¢-$23.64

76ers$1,86356.2¢+$110.52

hi774cCTR

Bulls

Invested

$4,000

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$50

Record

46%

5617-6532 (12149)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Bulls

Invested

$3,122.43

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$425.1

Record

46%

1997-2348 (4345)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

76ers

Invested

$2,219.4

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$79.99

Record

50%

5197-5095 (10292)

nigiri99CTR

Bulls

Invested

$1,311.2

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$14.9

Record

45%

14423-17722 (32145)

VeryLucky888CTR

Bulls

Invested

$1,170.9

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$53.83

Record

59%

52363-37089 (89452)

NM-PARB<$100

Bulls

Invested

$521.2

Value

$530.88

PnL

+$9.67

Record

57%

22335-16609 (38944)

Both legs:

Bulls$328.741.8¢-$2.58

76ers$192.555¢+$12.25

Anon455CTR

Bulls

Invested

$475

Value

$435

PnL

-$40

Record

54%

3933-3292 (7225)

GC-PARB<$100

Bulls

Invested

$396

Value

$413.75

PnL

+$17.75

Record

57%

22226-16583 (38809)

Both legs:

Invested

$382.57

Value

$392.73

PnL

+$10.16

Record

47%

2072-2311 (4383)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Bulls

Invested

$283.27

Value

$288.28

PnL

+$5.01

Record

51%

5657-5508 (11165)

Both legs:

Bulls$18245.5¢-$8

76ers$101.2750.1¢+$13.01

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

76ers

Invested

$400

Value

$200

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

195-151 (346)

Both legs:

Invested

$143.04

Value

$168.37

PnL

+$25.33

Record

51%

47136-44473 (91609)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Bulls

Invested

$172

Value

$166

PnL

-$6

Record

50%

2205-2180 (4385)

38791873984189ARB<$100

76ers

Invested

$219.75

Value

$140.85

PnL

-$3.46

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

Both legs:

76ers$76.7658.4¢-$2.52

Bulls$64.9442.4¢-$0.94

SnakeBallCTR

Bulls

Invested

$120.76

Value

$126.66

PnL

+$5.9

Record

50%

48547-48163 (96710)

RN1CTR

Bulls

Invested

$100

Value

$106.25

PnL

+$6.25

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

DolphinBallerCTR

Bulls

Invested

$101.86

Value

$104.23

PnL

+$2.37

Record

44%

124-156 (280)

justaluckydudeCTR

Bulls

Invested

$100

Value

$85

PnL

-$15

Record

53%

13661-12046 (25707)

sentrioCTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$38.72

Value

$37.34

PnL

-$1.38

Record

50%

27934-27381 (55315)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$39.61

Value

$22.42

PnL

+$4.65

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$6.4

Value

$6.38

PnL

-$0.03

Record

52%

9497-8605 (18102)

Research grade

AvoidBulls at 44%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Bulls

14 of 16 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors 76ers 56%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Bulls. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBulls 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrBulls 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedBulls 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Bulls 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bulls wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.2%

44.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$116.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

216.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.