Spread: Cowboys (-9.5)

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Cardinals (50%) · Cardinals at 98¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 1

Cowboys2¢Cardinals98¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Cardinals

Consensus Traders

Cardinals 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.2K

Combined PnL

$56.15

Smart Money Entry

50.9¢ → 98.5¢

+94% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralCardinals at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cardinals

6 of 12 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Cowboys2%

Cardinals98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cardinals6 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares5,536

Combined PnL-$36.67

Cowboys6 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares4,171

Combined PnL+$92.81

Cardinals — 50%Cowboys — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Cardinalsavg 39.8¢	$3.4K	$4.1K	+$669.66	54% 57187-49444 (106631)
└ Cardinals leg	Cardinalsavg 39.8¢	$2.2K	$2.7K	+$480.56
└ Cowboys leg	Cowboysavg 44.4¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$189.1
VeryLucky888	Cardinalsavg 58¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$9.73	58% 42718-31089 (73807)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Cowboysavg 42¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$14.17	54% 17338-14559 (31897)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Cowboysavg 49.8¢	$785.13	$897.2	+$112.07	53% 11037-9631 (20668)
AN Anon455	Cardinalsavg 39¢	$785.57	$695.37	-$90.2	55% 3014-2443 (5457)
TO topdogbigboi	Cardinalsavg 64.8¢	$291	$334.63	+$43.63	48% 8991-9637 (18628)
OM omnibus-076daa	Cardinalsavg 48.9¢	$240.4	$238.45	-$1.95	50% 19465-19831 (39296)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR	Cowboysavg 57¢	$180.12	$178.54	-$1.58	50% 3948-3932 (7880)
GH ghorrock<$100	Cardinalsavg 84.5¢	$25.37	$27.12	+$1.75	56% 14257-11059 (25316)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Cowboysavg 12.9¢	$14.19	$10.59	-$3.6	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Cowboysavg 53¢	$2.65	$2.78	+$0.13	50% 7981-8012 (15993)
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000<$100	Cardinalsavg 41¢	$2.3	$2.66	+$0.36	42% 2259-3078 (5337)
US User7429CTR<$100	Cowboysavg 11¢	$0.65	$0.62	-$0.03	55% 8417-6766 (15183)

RN1ARB<$100

Cardinals

Invested

$3,381.43

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$669.66

Record

54%

57187-49444 (106631)

Both legs:

Cardinals$2,191.6739.8¢+$480.56

Cowboys$1,189.7544.4¢+$189.1

VeryLucky888

Cardinals

Invested

$1,644.09

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$9.73

Record

58%

42718-31089 (73807)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Cowboys

Invested

$1,190.54

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$14.17

Record

54%

17338-14559 (31897)

justaluckydudeCTR

Cowboys

Invested

$785.13

Value

$897.2

PnL

+$112.07

Record

53%

11037-9631 (20668)

Anon455

Cardinals

Invested

$785.57

Value

$695.37

PnL

-$90.2

Record

55%

3014-2443 (5457)

topdogbigboi

Cardinals

Invested

$291

Value

$334.63

PnL

+$43.63

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

omnibus-076daa

Cardinals

Invested

$240.4

Value

$238.45

PnL

-$1.95

Record

50%

19465-19831 (39296)

NatoAlfistaCTR

Cowboys

Invested

$180.12

Value

$178.54

PnL

-$1.58

Record

50%

3948-3932 (7880)

ghorrock<$100

Cardinals

Invested

$25.37

Value

$27.12

PnL

+$1.75

Record

56%

14257-11059 (25316)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$14.19

Value

$10.59

PnL

-$3.6

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

RLWGCTR<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$2.65

Value

$2.78

PnL

+$0.13

Record

50%

7981-8012 (15993)

0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000<$100

Cardinals

Invested

$2.3

Value

$2.66

PnL

+$0.36

Record

42%

2259-3078 (5337)

User7429CTR<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$0.65

Value

$0.62

PnL

-$0.03

Record

55%

8417-6766 (15183)

Research grade

NeutralCardinals at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Cardinals

6 of 12 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cardinals wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.5%

98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.