Ravens vs. Bills: O/U 50.5

6 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (46%) · Under at 93¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 1

Over7¢Under93¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 46%

Total Value

$5.5K

Combined PnL

-$363.11

Smart Money Entry

59.3¢ → 93¢

+57% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 13 top traders (46%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over7%

Under93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares6,794

Combined PnL-$304.6

Over7 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,883

Combined PnL-$58.51

Under — 46%Over — 54%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Underavg 56¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$19.06	46% 1131-1309 (2440)
AN Anon455	Underavg 67.6¢	$1.6K	$1.4K	-$265.1	55% 3014-2443 (5457)
RN1CTR	Overavg 44.2¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$22.14	54% 57187-49444 (106631)
AM AmericaFirst1	Underavg 57¢	$426.52	$415.3	-$11.22	62% 2198-1345 (3543)
DR DreamwireCTR	Overavg 48¢	$120	$78.75	-$41.25	83% 2683-538 (3221)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Overavg 74¢	$74	$72.5	-$1.5	53% 4278-3736 (8014)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Underavg 56¢	$52.44	$51.97	-$0.47	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Overavg 30¢	$19.2	$26.4	+$7.2	53% 11037-9631 (20668)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 36¢	$23.55	$17.99	-$5.56	50% 33888-33462 (67350)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 36.4¢	$13	$9.81	-$3.19	56% 14257-11059 (25316)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 34¢	$3.4	$3.15	-$0.25	48% 8991-9637 (18628)
SE seeeeeebCTR<$100	Overavg 18¢	$2.7	$2.4	-$0.3	52% 804-728 (1532)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Overavg 18¢	$2.43	$2.16	-$0.27	66% 23472-11826 (35298)

primm

Under

Invested

$2,134.35

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$19.06

Record

46%

1131-1309 (2440)

Anon455

Under

Invested

$1,616.77

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$265.1

Record

55%

3014-2443 (5457)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$1,336.54

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$22.14

Record

54%

57187-49444 (106631)

AmericaFirst1

Under

Invested

$426.52

Value

$415.3

PnL

-$11.22

Record

62%

2198-1345 (3543)

DreamwireCTR

Over

Invested

$120

Value

$78.75

PnL

-$41.25

Record

83%

2683-538 (3221)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$74

Value

$72.5

PnL

-$1.5

Record

53%

4278-3736 (8014)

UpTheBlues<$100

Under

Invested

$52.44

Value

$51.97

PnL

-$0.47

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$19.2

Value

$26.4

PnL

+$7.2

Record

53%

11037-9631 (20668)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$23.55

Value

$17.99

PnL

-$5.56

Record

50%

33888-33462 (67350)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$13

Value

$9.81

PnL

-$3.19

Record

56%

14257-11059 (25316)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.4

Value

$3.15

PnL

-$0.25

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

seeeeeebCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.7

Value

$2.4

PnL

-$0.3

Record

52%

804-728 (1532)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.43

Value

$2.16

PnL

-$0.27

Record

66%

23472-11826 (35298)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 93%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 13 top traders (46%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.3%

93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.