Spread: Bengals (-7.5)

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Titans (45%) · Titans at 100¢ · $30K held · ended Nov 1

Bengals<1¢Titans>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Titans

Consensus Traders

Titans 45%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$30.2K

Combined PnL

$922.63

Smart Money Entry

64.7¢ → 99.6¢

+54% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralTitans at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Titans

5 of 11 top traders (45%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Bengals0%

Titans100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Titans5 traders

Total Value$20.2K

Total Shares30,324

Combined PnL+$577.59

Bengals6 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares8,423

Combined PnL+$345.04

Titans — 45%Bengals — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Nooserac	Titansavg 65.3¢	$18.7K	$19.2K	+$477.21	52% 5832-5416 (11248)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Bengalsavg 37.7¢	$2.6K	$3.1K	+$540.5	55% 3014-2443 (5457)
└ Titans leg	Titansavg 38.8¢	$1.0K	$1.8K	+$737.96
└ Bengals leg	Bengalsavg 37.7¢	$1.6K	$1.4K	-$197.46
RN1ARB<$100	Titansavg 58¢	$2.3K	$2.5K	+$178.19	54% 57187-49444 (106631)
└ Titans leg	Titansavg 58¢	$1.5K	$1.7K	+$178.19
└ Bengals leg	Bengalsavg 35¢	$855.75	$855.75	+$0
TKD44CTR	Bengalsavg 40¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$85.2	48% 156-166 (322)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Bengalsavg 65¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$0	54% 17338-14559 (31897)
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR	Bengalsavg 40¢	$684.8	$1.1K	+$428	46% 367-427 (794)
JU justaluckydude	Titansavg 54¢	$775.98	$898.13	+$122.14	53% 11037-9631 (20668)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Bengalsavg 63.6¢	$138.94	$142.09	+$3.15	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR	Bengalsavg 55¢	$108.46	$107.47	-$0.99	50% 3948-3932 (7880)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Titansavg 57.3¢	$65.03	$44.24	-$20.79	48% 8991-9637 (18628)
TA takeormake<$100	Titansavg 69¢	$41.1	$40.84	-$0.26	53% 4278-3736 (8014)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Titansavg 37¢	$17.76	$16.32	-$0.72	57% 29247-21632 (50879)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Bengalsavg 35¢	$5.25	$5.32	+$0.07	56% 14257-11059 (25316)

Nooserac

Titans

Invested

$18,730.48

Value

$19.2K

PnL

+$477.21

Record

52%

5832-5416 (11248)

Anon455ARB<$100

Bengals

Invested

$2,596.77

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$540.5

Record

55%

3014-2443 (5457)

Both legs:

Titans$1,012.2438.8¢+$737.96

Bengals$1,584.5237.7¢-$197.46

RN1ARB<$100

Titans

Invested

$2,334.68

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$178.19

Record

54%

57187-49444 (106631)

Both legs:

Titans$1,478.9358¢+$178.19

Bengals$855.7535¢+$0

TKD44CTR

Bengals

Invested

$1,704.06

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$85.2

Record

48%

156-166 (322)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Bengals

Invested

$1,313.09

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

17338-14559 (31897)

SunflowaRebuildYearCTR

Bengals

Invested

$684.8

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$428

Record

46%

367-427 (794)

justaluckydude

Titans

Invested

$775.98

Value

$898.13

PnL

+$122.14

Record

53%

11037-9631 (20668)

UpTheBluesCTR

Bengals

Invested

$138.94

Value

$142.09

PnL

+$3.15

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

NatoAlfistaCTR

Bengals

Invested

$108.46

Value

$107.47

PnL

-$0.99

Record

50%

3948-3932 (7880)

topdogbigboi<$100

Titans

Invested

$65.03

Value

$44.24

PnL

-$20.79

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

takeormake<$100

Titans

Invested

$41.1

Value

$40.84

PnL

-$0.26

Record

53%

4278-3736 (8014)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Titans

Invested

$17.76

Value

$16.32

PnL

-$0.72

Record

57%

29247-21632 (50879)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Bengals

Invested

$5.25

Value

$5.32

PnL

+$0.07

Record

56%

14257-11059 (25316)

Research grade

NeutralTitans at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Titans

5 of 11 top traders (45%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Titans wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.