Will CD Moquegua win on 2026-11-08?

10 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 93¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 9

Yes7¢No93¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

-$1.11

Smart Money Entry

92.6¢ → 92.7¢

+0% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 14 top traders (71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares3,439

Combined PnL+$20.17

Yes4 traders

Total Value$38.46

Total Shares553

Combined PnL-$21.28

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 91.5¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$18.71	52% 47368-44608 (91976)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 91.9¢	$646.14	$654.66	+$8.52	50% 32582-32710 (65292)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 94¢	$422.43	$421.12	-$1.31	46% 30580-35679 (66259)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 97.7¢	$346.22	$331.87	-$14.34	50% 48622-48197 (96819)
SE sentrio	Noavg 89.7¢	$141.63	$148.45	+$6.82	50% 27970-27422 (55392)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 94¢	$137.28	$139.47	+$2.19	32% 21161-45384 (66545)
VE Venusian	Noavg 94¢	$132.47	$127.07	-$5.4	47% 2189-2445 (4634)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 87.8¢	$65.32	$69.99	+$4.67	47% 2157-2403 (4560)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$49.58	$30.24	-$18.86	49% 2223-2352 (4575)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 92¢	$19.43	$14.74	+$0.25	59% 52427-37141 (89568)
RN1<$100	Noavg 92¢	$6.9	$6.96	+$0.06	53% 70249-61821 (132070)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.6¢	$2.47	$3.89	+$1.42	47% 8644-9781 (18425)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$6.71	$3.22	-$3.49	47% 2148-2414 (4562)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yesavg 7.2¢	$1.45	$1.1	-$0.35	52% 9525-8636 (18161)

Flaznorp

Invested

$1,365.74

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$18.71

Record

52%

47368-44608 (91976)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$646.14

Value

$654.66

PnL

+$8.52

Record

50%

32582-32710 (65292)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$422.43

Value

$421.12

PnL

-$1.31

Record

46%

30580-35679 (66259)

SnakeBall

Invested

$346.22

Value

$331.87

PnL

-$14.34

Record

50%

48622-48197 (96819)

sentrio

Invested

$141.63

Value

$148.45

PnL

+$6.82

Record

50%

27970-27422 (55392)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$137.28

Value

$139.47

PnL

+$2.19

Record

32%

21161-45384 (66545)

Venusian

Invested

$132.47

Value

$127.07

PnL

-$5.4

Record

47%

2189-2445 (4634)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$65.32

Value

$69.99

PnL

+$4.67

Record

47%

2157-2403 (4560)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.58

Value

$30.24

PnL

-$18.86

Record

49%

2223-2352 (4575)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$19.43

Value

$14.74

PnL

+$0.25

Record

59%

52427-37141 (89568)

RN1<$100

Invested

$6.9

Value

$6.96

PnL

+$0.06

Record

53%

70249-61821 (132070)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.47

Value

$3.89

PnL

+$1.42

Record

47%

8644-9781 (18425)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.71

Value

$3.22

PnL

-$3.49

Record

47%

2148-2414 (4562)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.45

Value

$1.1

PnL

-$0.35

Record

52%

9525-8636 (18161)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 14 top traders (71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.0%

92.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.