FC Internazionale Milano vs. Como 1907: O/U 2.5

9 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 95¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 8

Over95¢Under5¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.9K

Combined PnL

-$315.29

Smart Money Entry

64¢ → 94.5¢

+48% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 18 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over95%

Under6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over9 traders

Total Value$7.8K

Total Shares9,333

Combined PnL+$498.1

Under9 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares8,134

Combined PnL-$813.4

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Over) and the top 1000 (9 on Under) disagree here.

whaleOver 57% · 7

Aligned

ctrOver 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 64.3¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	-$52.9	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 63¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$13.62	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Underavg 37¢	$4.6K	$1.6K	-$114.25	46% 33216-38836 (72052)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 63¢	$988.67	$1.5K	+$485.57	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
GC GC-P	Overavg 63¢	$1.6K	$889.29	+$19.41	57% 22219-16567 (38786)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Overavg 63¢	$1.2K	$789.63	-$8.37	57% 22329-16593 (38922)
└ Over leg	Overavg 63¢	$535.5	$556.75	+$4.25
└ Under leg	Underavg 36.4¢	$245.5	$232.88	-$12.62
VeryLucky888	Overavg 63.9¢	$435.71	$356.83	-$1.75	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
nigiri99	Overavg 65.9¢	$303.99	$301.96	-$2.03	45% 14412-17706 (32118)
SE sentrioARB<$100	Underavg 37¢	$765.11	$294.06	-$14.09	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
└ Under leg	Underavg 37¢	$246.84	$230.47	-$16.42
└ Over leg	Overavg 63.1¢	$61.25	$63.59	+$2.33
AN Anon455	Overavg 79¢	$197.5	$235	+$37.5	55% 3933-3280 (7213)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Underavg 36¢	$165	$172.5	+$7.5	50% 23433-23429 (46862)
0xheavy888CTR	Underavg 36¢	$144	$138	-$6	56% 8592-6809 (15401)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 62.9¢	$52.22	$78.02	+$25.8	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 35.5¢	$287.72	$48.57	-$239.15	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 26.3¢	$181.77	$38.06	-$143.71	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 37.8¢	$203.35	$32.32	-$171.03	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 25.8¢	$99.12	$23.01	-$76.11	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 36¢	$84.61	$14.09	-$70.52	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
WA WagerWizard<$100	Overavg 92¢	$4.69	$4.82	+$0.13	71% 18400-7571 (25971)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 37¢	$5	$1.73	-$0.13	52% 9470-8570 (18040)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$2,729.33

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$52.9

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$1,800.99

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$13.62

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Under

Invested

$4,570.22

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$114.25

Record

46%

33216-38836 (72052)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$988.67

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$485.57

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

GC-P

Over

Invested

$1,601.61

Value

$889.29

PnL

+$19.41

Record

57%

22219-16567 (38786)

NM-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,227.5

Value

$789.63

PnL

-$8.37

Record

57%

22329-16593 (38922)

Both legs:

Over$535.563¢+$4.25

Under$245.536.4¢-$12.62

VeryLucky888

Over

Invested

$435.71

Value

$356.83

PnL

-$1.75

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

nigiri99

Over

Invested

$303.99

Value

$301.96

PnL

-$2.03

Record

45%

14412-17706 (32118)

sentrioARB<$100

Under

Invested

$765.11

Value

$294.06

PnL

-$14.09

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

Both legs:

Under$246.8437¢-$16.42

Over$61.2563.1¢+$2.33

Anon455

Over

Invested

$197.5

Value

$235

PnL

+$37.5

Record

55%

3933-3280 (7213)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Under

Invested

$165

Value

$172.5

PnL

+$7.5

Record

50%

23433-23429 (46862)

0xheavy888CTR

Under

Invested

$144

Value

$138

PnL

-$6

Record

56%

8592-6809 (15401)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$52.22

Value

$78.02

PnL

+$25.8

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$287.72

Value

$48.57

PnL

-$239.15

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$181.77

Value

$38.06

PnL

-$143.71

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$203.35

Value

$32.32

PnL

-$171.03

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$99.12

Value

$23.01

PnL

-$76.11

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$84.61

Value

$14.09

PnL

-$70.52

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

WagerWizard<$100

Over

Invested

$4.69

Value

$4.82

PnL

+$0.13

Record

71%

18400-7571 (25971)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$1.73

PnL

-$0.13

Record

52%

9470-8570 (18040)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 95%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 18 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Over) and the top 1000 (9 on Under) disagree here.

whaleOver 57% · 7

Aligned

ctrOver 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.