Mjallby AIF vs. Kalmar FF: O/U 2.5

9 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Under (56%) · Under at 85¢ · $15K held · ended Nov 2

Over15¢Under85¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 56%

Total Value

$15.0K

Combined PnL

$3.2K

Smart Money Entry

52.2¢ → 85¢

+63% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 16 top traders (56%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over15%

Under85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$11.8K

Total Shares15,804

Combined PnL+$3.5K

Over7 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares9,858

Combined PnL-$374.89

Under — 56%Over — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (6 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrOver 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa	Underavg 51.3¢	$4.9K	$7.1K	+$2.2K	50% 19840-20177 (40017)
RN1	Underavg 55¢	$1.8K	$2.5K	+$660.8	54% 58168-50389 (108557)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 49¢	$1.4K	$1.6K	-$49.53	51% 17638-16634 (34272)
PP ppku6298CTR	Overavg 48¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$26.67	45% 102-125 (227)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 52.1¢	$839.45	$1.2K	+$369.48	50% 26433-26260 (52693)
alpheclabs2	Underavg 51.9¢	$408.37	$590.25	+$181.88	49% 102-105 (207)
TO topdogbigboi	Underavg 52.4¢	$107.54	$153.8	+$46.27	47% 10068-11201 (21269)
SE sentrioCTR	Overavg 48¢	$141.01	$138.07	-$2.94	50% 25016-24737 (49753)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 48.5¢	$400.53	$123.78	-$276.75	58% 43640-31740 (75380)
IW iWasEnough	Underavg 51.2¢	$117.67	$120.56	+$2.89	51% 11449-10810 (22259)
poshposh	Underavg 52¢	$78	$112.5	+$16.5	58% 11459-8313 (19772)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$37.42	$20.79	-$16.63	46% 9230-10950 (20180)
LI LightParadox<$100	Underavg 53¢	$7.95	$12.75	+$4.8	54% 336-289 (625)
LI Limousin<$100	Underavg 55¢	$8.25	$11.25	+$3	53% 343-306 (649)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$3.91	$2.87	-$1.03	54% 5008-4231 (9239)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$2.85	$1.52	-$1.33	45% 12983-15755 (28738)

omnibus-076daa

Under

Invested

$4,866.62

Value

$7.1K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

50%

19840-20177 (40017)

RN1

Under

Invested

$1,817.2

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$660.8

Record

54%

58168-50389 (108557)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$1,351.78

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$49.53

Record

51%

17638-16634 (34272)

ppku6298CTR

Over

Invested

$1,279.99

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$26.67

Record

45%

102-125 (227)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$839.45

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$369.48

Record

50%

26433-26260 (52693)

alpheclabs2

Under

Invested

$408.37

Value

$590.25

PnL

+$181.88

Record

49%

102-105 (207)

topdogbigboi

Under

Invested

$107.54

Value

$153.8

PnL

+$46.27

Record

47%

10068-11201 (21269)

sentrioCTR

Over

Invested

$141.01

Value

$138.07

PnL

-$2.94

Record

50%

25016-24737 (49753)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$400.53

Value

$123.78

PnL

-$276.75

Record

58%

43640-31740 (75380)

iWasEnough

Under

Invested

$117.67

Value

$120.56

PnL

+$2.89

Record

51%

11449-10810 (22259)

poshposh

Under

Invested

$78

Value

$112.5

PnL

+$16.5

Record

58%

11459-8313 (19772)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$37.42

Value

$20.79

PnL

-$16.63

Record

46%

9230-10950 (20180)

LightParadox<$100

Under

Invested

$7.95

Value

$12.75

PnL

+$4.8

Record

54%

336-289 (625)

Limousin<$100

Under

Invested

$8.25

Value

$11.25

PnL

+$3

Record

53%

343-306 (649)

WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.91

Value

$2.87

PnL

-$1.03

Record

54%

5008-4231 (9239)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.85

Value

$1.52

PnL

-$1.33

Record

45%

12983-15755 (28738)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 85%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 16 top traders (56%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (6 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrOver 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.6%

85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$15.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

115.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.