Will Gençlerbirliği SK win on 2026-11-08?

14 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold No (74%) · No at 100¢ · $17K held · ended Nov 8

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 74%

Total Value

$16.9K

Combined PnL

-$82.03

Smart Money Entry

96¢ → 99.6¢

+4% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 19 top traders (74%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No14 traders

Total Value$16.8K

Total Shares17,047

Combined PnL+$250.87

Yes5 traders

Total Value$28.38

Total Shares8,661

Combined PnL-$332.89

No — 74%Yes — 26%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (9 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 95.7¢	$4.4K	$4.5K	+$176.1	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
RN1	Noavg 96.3¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	+$64.24	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 95.7¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$95.33	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
PA pagliacci4	Noavg 96.9¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$8.14	—
MA MadridTime	Noavg 99.3¢	$887.72	$804.97	-$82.75	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
GC GC-P	Noavg 94¢	$773.71	$777.83	+$4.12	57% 22219-16567 (38786)
NM NM-P	Noavg 94¢	$773.21	$777.32	+$4.11	57% 22329-16593 (38922)
VE Venusian	Noavg 95.1¢	$728.57	$707.38	-$21.19	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Noavg 96.2¢	$624.65	$642.04	+$17.39	46% 1957-2309 (4266)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 97.9¢	$531.23	$518.93	-$8.43	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
0xheavy888	Noavg 93¢	$196.56	$185.75	+$2.95	56% 8592-6809 (15401)
PA Pan9X	Noavg 96.3¢	$439.08	$185.46	+$1.19	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 96.5¢	$178.21	$184.12	+$5.91	46% 30563-35669 (66232)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 4.2¢	$226.26	$16.03	-$210.23	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Yesavg 4¢	$111.49	$8.37	-$103.12	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Noavg 95¢	$4.75	$4.8	+$0.04	50% 23433-23429 (46862)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$20.64	$1.74	-$18.9	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.2¢	$1.78	$1.74	-$0.04	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
dips.CTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$1.1	$0.49	-$0.61	46% 12026-13917 (25943)

Flaznorp

Invested

$4,367.53

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$176.1

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

RN1

Invested

$3,179.76

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$64.24

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

SnakeBall

Invested

$2,276.97

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$95.33

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

pagliacci4

Invested

$1,905.57

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$8.14

Record

—

MadridTime

Invested

$887.72

Value

$804.97

PnL

-$82.75

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

GC-P

Invested

$773.71

Value

$777.83

PnL

+$4.12

Record

57%

22219-16567 (38786)

NM-P

Invested

$773.21

Value

$777.32

PnL

+$4.11

Record

57%

22329-16593 (38922)

Venusian

Invested

$728.57

Value

$707.38

PnL

-$21.19

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Invested

$624.65

Value

$642.04

PnL

+$17.39

Record

46%

1957-2309 (4266)

38791873984189

Invested

$531.23

Value

$518.93

PnL

-$8.43

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

0xheavy888

Invested

$196.56

Value

$185.75

PnL

+$2.95

Record

56%

8592-6809 (15401)

Pan9X

Invested

$439.08

Value

$185.46

PnL

+$1.19

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$178.21

Value

$184.12

PnL

+$5.91

Record

46%

30563-35669 (66232)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$226.26

Value

$16.03

PnL

-$210.23

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

LightParadoxCTR

Yes

Invested

$111.49

Value

$8.37

PnL

-$103.12

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Invested

$4.75

Value

$4.8

PnL

+$0.04

Record

50%

23433-23429 (46862)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.64

Value

$1.74

PnL

-$18.9

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.78

Value

$1.74

PnL

-$0.04

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

dips.CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.1

Value

$0.49

PnL

-$0.61

Record

46%

12026-13917 (25943)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 19 top traders (74%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (9 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.