PSV vs. Club Brugge KV: Both Teams to Score

2 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (15%) · Yes at 71¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 4

Yes71¢No29¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 15%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.9K

Combined PnL

-$105.25

Smart Money Entry

72¢ → 70.5¢

-2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 13 top traders (15%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes71%

No30%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares5,122

Combined PnL-$95.97

No11 traders

Total Value$881.77

Total Shares3,033

Combined PnL-$9.28

Yes — 15%No — 85%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

15% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrNo 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 91% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yesavg 71¢	$4.3K	$4.3K	-$76.27	51% 24219-22949 (47168)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 71¢	$3.2K	$3.1K	-$46.89
└ No leg	Noavg 29.7¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$29.38
AN AnonymousUsernameARB<$100	Noavg 29.5¢	$4.2K	$4.2K	+$12.43	71% 7114-2861 (9975)
└ No leg	Noavg 29.5¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	+$1.1
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 70¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$11.32
nigiri99	Yesavg 72¢	$3.7K	$3.6K	-$103.63	46% 8408-9878 (18286)
CA CannaeCTR	Noavg 29¢	$331.32	$331.44	+$0.12	53% 16517-14663 (31180)
38 38791873984189CTR	Noavg 29¢	$169.65	$169.65	+$8.78	48% 59237-63255 (122492)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Noavg 31¢	$180.66	$168.84	-$11.82	52% 1146-1041 (2187)
DV dv-pmCTR	Noavg 30¢	$138.93	$136.61	-$2.32	49% 3293-3423 (6716)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Noavg 31.1¢	$47.79	$44.63	-$3.15	52% 1158-1077 (2235)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 29.1¢	$13.88	$13.85	-$0.03	58% 19455-14308 (33763)
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 69¢	$228.62	$11.28	+$7.66	58% 45427-32914 (78341)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 31.1¢	$8.01	$7.48	-$0.53	51% 7648-7364 (15012)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Noavg 31.1¢	$7.05	$6.58	-$0.47	54% 1189-1028 (2217)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 28¢	$1.4	$1.45	+$0.13	50% 25481-25189 (50670)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 30¢	$0.86	$0.83	+$0	50% 36335-35819 (72154)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 29¢	$0.41	$0.41	+$0.02	49% 14323-15001 (29324)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$4,342.87

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$76.27

Record

51%

24219-22949 (47168)

Both legs:

Yes$3,173.1971¢-$46.89

No$1,169.6829.7¢-$29.38

AnonymousUsernameARB<$100

Invested

$4,192.25

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$12.43

Record

71%

7114-2861 (9975)

Both legs:

No$2,747.7529.5¢+$1.1

Yes$1,444.570¢+$11.32

nigiri99

Yes

Invested

$3,677.83

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$103.63

Record

46%

8408-9878 (18286)

CannaeCTR

Invested

$331.32

Value

$331.44

PnL

+$0.12

Record

53%

16517-14663 (31180)

38791873984189CTR

Invested

$169.65

Value

$169.65

PnL

+$8.78

Record

48%

59237-63255 (122492)

LightParadoxCTR

Invested

$180.66

Value

$168.84

PnL

-$11.82

Record

52%

1146-1041 (2187)

dv-pmCTR

Invested

$138.93

Value

$136.61

PnL

-$2.32

Record

49%

3293-3423 (6716)

VenusianCTR<$100

Invested

$47.79

Value

$44.63

PnL

-$3.15

Record

52%

1158-1077 (2235)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$13.88

Value

$13.85

PnL

-$0.03

Record

58%

19455-14308 (33763)

VeryLucky888

Yes

Invested

$228.62

Value

$11.28

PnL

+$7.66

Record

58%

45427-32914 (78341)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$8.01

Value

$7.48

PnL

-$0.53

Record

51%

7648-7364 (15012)

LimousinCTR<$100

Invested

$7.05

Value

$6.58

PnL

-$0.47

Record

54%

1189-1028 (2217)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$1.4

Value

$1.45

PnL

+$0.13

Record

50%

25481-25189 (50670)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$0.86

Value

$0.83

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

36335-35819 (72154)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$0.41

Value

$0.41

PnL

+$0.02

Record

49%

14323-15001 (29324)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 71%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 13 top traders (15%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

15% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrNo 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 91% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.