Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (51%). 5 of 17 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

AC Milan vs. Ferencvárosi TC: O/U 1.5

5 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Over (29%) · Over at 49¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 5

Over49¢Under51¢Ended Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 29%

Total Value

$5.8K

Combined PnL

$687.87

Smart Money Entry

65.8¢ → 49¢

-26% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 49%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 17 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Under 51%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over49%

Under51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares4,323

Combined PnL-$296.06

Under12 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares10,217

Combined PnL+$983.93

Over — 29%Under — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 60.8¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$213.32	51% 25736-24442 (50178)
MA MadridTime	Underavg 21.9¢	$500.89	$1.1K	+$551.71	50% 1322-1299 (2621)
VE Venusian	Underavg 36.8¢	$557.48	$750.07	+$192.59	51% 1376-1340 (2716)
DA darkumbreon88CTR	Overavg 85¢	$670.23	$678.12	+$7.89	64% 1960-1090 (3050)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 64¢	$690.85	$591.49	-$99.36	48% 61037-65871 (126908)
RN1	Underavg 29.6¢	$196.55	$321.91	+$125.36	53% 61353-53664 (115017)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 14¢	$236.62	$236.62	-$0	50% 28416-28324 (56740)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 14.2¢	$210.37	$228.83	+$18.46	58% 46675-33635 (80310)
CA Cannae	Underavg 13¢	$148.68	$157.75	+$9.07	53% 16798-14919 (31717)
GC GC-P	Underavg 13.3¢	$149.35	$156.67	+$7.32	64% 9962-5595 (15557)
LI LightParadox	Underavg 27.5¢	$69.26	$117.03	+$47.77	52% 1374-1289 (2663)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Overavg 57¢	$114	$117	+$3	47% 11692-13410 (25102)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 25.2¢	$19.1	$37.09	+$17.99	51% 37665-36890 (74555)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 58.7¢	$79.44	$35.74	+$5.74	55% 9735-8125 (17860)
LI Limousin<$100	Underavg 30.2¢	$25.1	$35.28	+$10.18	53% 1421-1264 (2685)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Underavg 31.8¢	$16.21	$21.13	+$4.92	49% 14708-15378 (30086)
rayvanmechelen<$100	Underavg 18¢	$14.85	$13.41	-$1.44	53% 2573-2253 (4826)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$1,429.75

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$213.32

Record

51%

25736-24442 (50178)

MadridTime

Under

Invested

$500.89

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$551.71

Record

50%

1322-1299 (2621)

Venusian

Under

Invested

$557.48

Value

$750.07

PnL

+$192.59

Record

51%

1376-1340 (2716)

darkumbreon88CTR

Over

Invested

$670.23

Value

$678.12

PnL

+$7.89

Record

64%

1960-1090 (3050)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$690.85

Value

$591.49

PnL

-$99.36

Record

48%

61037-65871 (126908)

RN1

Under

Invested

$196.55

Value

$321.91

PnL

+$125.36

Record

53%

61353-53664 (115017)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$236.62

Value

$236.62

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

28416-28324 (56740)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$210.37

Value

$228.83

PnL

+$18.46

Record

58%

46675-33635 (80310)

Cannae

Under

Invested

$148.68

Value

$157.75

PnL

+$9.07

Record

53%

16798-14919 (31717)

GC-P

Under

Invested

$149.35

Value

$156.67

PnL

+$7.32

Record

64%

9962-5595 (15557)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$69.26

Value

$117.03

PnL

+$47.77

Record

52%

1374-1289 (2663)

topdogbigboiCTR

Over

Invested

$114

Value

$117

PnL

+$3

Record

47%

11692-13410 (25102)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$19.1

Value

$37.09

PnL

+$17.99

Record

51%

37665-36890 (74555)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$79.44

Value

$35.74

PnL

+$5.74

Record

55%

9735-8125 (17860)

Limousin<$100

Under

Invested

$25.1

Value

$35.28

PnL

+$10.18

Record

53%

1421-1264 (2685)

LuckyLoo<$100

Under

Invested

$16.21

Value

$21.13

PnL

+$4.92

Record

49%

14708-15378 (30086)

rayvanmechelen<$100

Under

Invested

$14.85

Value

$13.41

PnL

-$1.44

Record

53%

2573-2253 (4826)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 49%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 17 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Under 51%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.2%

49.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$95.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

195.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.