Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (85%). 10 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 16¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 16

Yes16¢No84¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 83%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.7K

Combined PnL

-$503.13

Smart Money Entry

16.6¢ → 15.5¢

-7% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 16%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 12 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 85%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes16%

No85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,536

Combined PnL+$108.38

Yes10 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares27,687

Combined PnL-$611.51

No — 17%Yes — 83%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 46%

Freshness

Late

99h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

85% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 46% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 89% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MEPP	Noavg 77¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$110.75	64% 633-352 (985)
GollumGekkoCTR	Yesavg 20.4¢	$1.6K	$1.2K	-$420.98	68% 2074-958 (3032)
NadmiCTR	Yesavg 9.8¢	$495	$758.33	+$212.78	47% 2036-2278 (4314)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR	Yesavg 18.5¢	$720.28	$602.05	-$118.22	38% 20-32 (52)
BigRabbitCTR	Yesavg 18¢	$707.65	$589.71	-$235.88	40% 704-1062 (1766)
tetraseCTR	Yesavg 16¢	$495.59	$480.21	-$15.4	61% 839-544 (1383)
CarCTR	Yesavg 14.9¢	$476.63	$465	-$11.63	67% 4165-2026 (6191)
PaddyAlphaARB<$100	Yesavg 16.2¢	$441.92	$205.22	+$23.59	59% 986-684 (1670)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 16.2¢	$157.35	$150.28	+$20.34
└ No leg	Noavg 83¢	$53.96	$54.93	+$3.25
SE SeniorLaghettoCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.8¢	$57.31	$73.05	+$13.3	69% 404-180 (584)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 88¢	$52.22	$49.85	-$2.37	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
StarMasterCTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$60.8	$35.76	-$25.03	53% 1858-1640 (3498)
88 881112CTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$24.29	$15.84	-$8.45	38% 567-944 (1511)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$14.53	$12.55	-$1.98	53% 6690-5887 (12577)

MEPP

Invested

$1,137.05

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$110.75

Record

64%

633-352 (985)

GollumGekkoCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,595.91

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$420.98

Record

68%

2074-958 (3032)

NadmiCTR

Yes

Invested

$495

Value

$758.33

PnL

+$212.78

Record

47%

2036-2278 (4314)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR

Yes

Invested

$720.28

Value

$602.05

PnL

-$118.22

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

BigRabbitCTR

Yes

Invested

$707.65

Value

$589.71

PnL

-$235.88

Record

40%

704-1062 (1766)

tetraseCTR

Yes

Invested

$495.59

Value

$480.21

PnL

-$15.4

Record

61%

839-544 (1383)

CarCTR

Yes

Invested

$476.63

Value

$465

PnL

-$11.63

Record

67%

4165-2026 (6191)

PaddyAlphaARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$441.92

Value

$205.22

PnL

+$23.59

Record

59%

986-684 (1670)

Both legs:

Yes$157.3516.2¢+$20.34

No$53.9683¢+$3.25

SeniorLaghettoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$57.31

Value

$73.05

PnL

+$13.3

Record

69%

404-180 (584)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$52.22

Value

$49.85

PnL

-$2.37

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

StarMasterCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$60.8

Value

$35.76

PnL

-$25.03

Record

53%

1858-1640 (3498)

881112CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.29

Value

$15.84

PnL

-$8.45

Record

38%

567-944 (1511)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.53

Value

$12.55

PnL

-$1.98

Record

53%

6690-5887 (12577)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 16%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 12 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 85%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 46%

Freshness

Late

99h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

85% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 46% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 89% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance17.2%

15.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$481.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

581.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.