Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 10 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

AS Roma vs. Servette FC Chênois Féminin: O/U 2.5

10 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (77%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 10

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 77%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

-$384.44

Smart Money Entry

23¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 13 top traders (77%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$774.71

Total Shares778

Combined PnL+$206.35

Under10 traders

Total Value$261.97

Total Shares3,123

Combined PnL-$590.8

Over — 23%Under — 77%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 70.7¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$0.42	57% 1516-1167 (2683)
└ Over leg	Overavg 70.7¢	$756.61	$706.19	-$50.42
└ Under leg	Underavg 28.2¢	$245.25	$296.09	+$50.84
MA maxiplayer	Overavg 70.2¢	$487.95	$691.58	+$203.63	— 2-1 (3)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 22.3¢	$696.54	$182.48	-$448.54	50% 1421-1422 (2843)
US User7429<$100	Overavg 97.2¢	$50.96	$52.15	+$1.19	18% 71-320 (391)
RO Rocky31<$100	Overavg 95¢	$29.45	$30.98	+$1.53	20% 29-116 (145)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 32.7¢	$32.81	$22.1	-$10.71	25% 222-667 (889)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 22¢	$40.56	$20.28	-$20.28	26% 226-645 (871)
0X 0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540CTR<$100	Underavg 22¢	$39.39	$18.8	-$20.59	79% 22-6 (28)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 32¢	$16	$16.75	+$0.75	58% 3766-2722 (6488)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 20¢	$2.71	$1.09	-$1.63	47% 148-167 (315)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Underavg 20.5¢	$9.97	$0.24	-$9.72	50% 169-167 (336)
dips.CTR<$100	Underavg 23.7¢	$52.08	$0.11	-$51.97	42% 208-286 (494)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 26¢	$4.6	$0.09	-$4.51	26% 226-653 (879)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 28.1¢	$23.63	$0.04	-$23.59	25% 224-665 (889)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,001.86

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$0.42

Record

57%

1516-1167 (2683)

Both legs:

Over$756.6170.7¢-$50.42

Under$245.2528.2¢+$50.84

maxiplayer

Over

Invested

$487.95

Value

$691.58

PnL

+$203.63

Record

—

2-1 (3)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$696.54

Value

$182.48

PnL

-$448.54

Record

50%

1421-1422 (2843)

User7429<$100

Over

Invested

$50.96

Value

$52.15

PnL

+$1.19

Record

18%

71-320 (391)

Rocky31<$100

Over

Invested

$29.45

Value

$30.98

PnL

+$1.53

Record

20%

29-116 (145)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$32.81

Value

$22.1

PnL

-$10.71

Record

25%

222-667 (889)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$40.56

Value

$20.28

PnL

-$20.28

Record

26%

226-645 (871)

0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$39.39

Value

$18.8

PnL

-$20.59

Record

79%

22-6 (28)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$16

Value

$16.75

PnL

+$0.75

Record

58%

3766-2722 (6488)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.71

Value

$1.09

PnL

-$1.63

Record

47%

148-167 (315)

lryyyCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.97

Value

$0.24

PnL

-$9.72

Record

50%

169-167 (336)

dips.CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$52.08

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$51.97

Record

42%

208-286 (494)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.6

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$4.51

Record

26%

226-653 (879)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$23.63

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$23.59

Record

25%

224-665 (889)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 13 top traders (77%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.