Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-11-11?

11 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (85%) · No at 68¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 11

Yes33¢No67¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 85%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

-$73.32

Smart Money Entry

62.1¢ → 67.5¢

+9% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes33%

No68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares4,293

Combined PnL+$360.24

Yes2 traders

Total Value$663.91

Total Shares2,281

Combined PnL-$433.56

No — 85%Yes — 15%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
itoney17	Noavg 47¢	$863.68	$1.4K	+$497.4	—
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Yesavg 48¢	$1.1K	$653.23	-$428.82	35% 176-320 (496)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 76.9¢	$336.83	$295.58	-$41.25	52% 5322-4827 (10149)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 74.8¢	$287.35	$259.43	-$27.92	28% 2449-6153 (8602)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225	Noavg 77.3¢	$242.82	$212.02	-$30.8	36% 521-909 (1430)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023	Noavg 75.4¢	$233.96	$209.5	-$24.46	34% 199-384 (583)
WH whosay	Noavg 62¢	$167.56	$185.13	+$17.57	— 12-6 (18)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yesavg 56.2¢	$217.89	$176.73	-$41.15	50% 1390-1407 (2797)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 56.2¢	$187.29	$128.2	-$59.08
└ No leg	Noavg 38.8¢	$30.6	$48.53	+$17.93
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579	Noavg 75.9¢	$191.56	$170.27	-$21.29	31% 190-424 (614)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343	Noavg 68.3¢	$136.36	$135.27	-$1.09	32% 205-443 (648)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293	Noavg 72¢	$140.74	$131.55	-$2.36	38% 173-282 (455)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 72.7¢	$80.95	$75.32	-$5.62	37% 190-317 (507)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 57.1¢	$47.24	$10.69	-$4.74	48% 220-236 (456)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 36¢	$1.91	$1.96	+$0.05	30% 160-379 (539)

itoney17

Invested

$863.68

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$497.4

Record

—

omnibus-076daaCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,082.05

Value

$653.23

PnL

-$428.82

Record

35%

176-320 (496)

cigarettes

Invested

$336.83

Value

$295.58

PnL

-$41.25

Record

52%

5322-4827 (10149)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$287.35

Value

$259.43

PnL

-$27.92

Record

28%

2449-6153 (8602)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225

Invested

$242.82

Value

$212.02

PnL

-$30.8

Record

36%

521-909 (1430)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023

Invested

$233.96

Value

$209.5

PnL

-$24.46

Record

34%

199-384 (583)

whosay

Invested

$167.56

Value

$185.13

PnL

+$17.57

Record

—

12-6 (18)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$217.89

Value

$176.73

PnL

-$41.15

Record

50%

1390-1407 (2797)

Both legs:

Yes$187.2956.2¢-$59.08

No$30.638.8¢+$17.93

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579

Invested

$191.56

Value

$170.27

PnL

-$21.29

Record

31%

190-424 (614)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343

Invested

$136.36

Value

$135.27

PnL

-$1.09

Record

32%

205-443 (648)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293

Invested

$140.74

Value

$131.55

PnL

-$2.36

Record

38%

173-282 (455)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$80.95

Value

$75.32

PnL

-$5.62

Record

37%

190-317 (507)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$47.24

Value

$10.69

PnL

-$4.74

Record

48%

220-236 (456)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$1.91

Value

$1.96

PnL

+$0.05

Record

30%

160-379 (539)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.