Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (92%). 9 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (69%) · Yes at 8.5¢ · $10K held · ends Dec 31

Yes9¢No91¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 69%

Total Value

$10.2K

Combined PnL

$-28.5K

Smart Money Entry

33.8¢ → 8.5¢

-75% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 9%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 13 top traders (69%)Underdog side (market favors No 92%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes9%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$9.7K

Total Shares114,322

Combined PnL$-28.6K

No4 traders

Total Value$501.91

Total Shares549

Combined PnL+$150.15

Yes — 69%No — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

84 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

69% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 71% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
gopfan2CTR	Yesavg 30.5¢	$30.5K	$7.8K	$-19.7K	51% 901-875 (1776)
TR troimCTR	Yesavg 56.3¢	$5.2K	$765.01	$-4.4K	36% 397-691 (1088)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 62.2¢	$210.27	$293.75	+$83.48	53% 6690-5887 (12577)
0X 0x955c9661bf6e010beff0ba896a49f715a8c8990fCTR	Yesavg 62¢	$2.1K	$287.51	$-1.8K	79% 332-89 (421)
FL flawfenceCTR	Yesavg 32.1¢	$851.61	$233.83	-$617.79	46% 271-319 (590)
TT tttt123	Noavg 62.7¢	$134.95	$182	+$57.81	72% 1535-585 (2120)
GollumGekkoCTR	Yesavg 20.4¢	$407.33	$168.3	-$239.03	68% 2074-958 (3032)
SU supersmardCTR	Yesavg 30¢	$539.45	$150.13	-$389.32	39% 46-71 (117)
CO cocococococoCTR	Yesavg 36.5¢	$696.7	$148.47	-$548.23	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
WongKimArkCTR	Yesavg 54¢	$604.81	$95.2	-$509.6	63% 217-127 (344)
RememberAmalekCTR	Yesavg 51.5¢	$520.55	$85.51	-$435.05	56% 973-770 (1743)
WO wokerjoesleeper<$100	Noavg 63.9¢	$17.29	$24.73	+$7.44	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
KO korda77<$100	Noavg 42¢	$0	$1.42	+$1.42	52% 5046-4713 (9759)

gopfan2CTR

Yes

Invested

$30,471.22

Value

$7.8K

PnL

$-19.7K

Record

51%

901-875 (1776)

troimCTR

Yes

Invested

$5,201.32

Value

$765.01

PnL

$-4.4K

Record

36%

397-691 (1088)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$210.27

Value

$293.75

PnL

+$83.48

Record

53%

6690-5887 (12577)

0x955c9661bf6e010beff0ba896a49f715a8c8990fCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,097.11

Value

$287.51

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

79%

332-89 (421)

flawfenceCTR

Yes

Invested

$851.61

Value

$233.83

PnL

-$617.79

Record

46%

271-319 (590)

tttt123

Invested

$134.95

Value

$182

PnL

+$57.81

Record

72%

1535-585 (2120)

GollumGekkoCTR

Yes

Invested

$407.33

Value

$168.3

PnL

-$239.03

Record

68%

2074-958 (3032)

supersmardCTR

Yes

Invested

$539.45

Value

$150.13

PnL

-$389.32

Record

39%

46-71 (117)

cocococococoCTR

Yes

Invested

$696.7

Value

$148.47

PnL

-$548.23

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

WongKimArkCTR

Yes

Invested

$604.81

Value

$95.2

PnL

-$509.6

Record

63%

217-127 (344)

RememberAmalekCTR

Yes

Invested

$520.55

Value

$85.51

PnL

-$435.05

Record

56%

973-770 (1743)

wokerjoesleeper<$100

Invested

$17.29

Value

$24.73

PnL

+$7.44

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

korda77<$100

Invested

Value

$1.42

PnL

+$1.42

Record

52%

5046-4713 (9759)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 9%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 13 top traders (69%)Underdog side (market favors No 92%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

84 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

69% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 71% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance9.9%

8.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$907.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

1007.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.