Will there be no new be CEO of NVIDIA by December 31, 2028?

10 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (77%) · No at 77¢ · $4K held · ends Jan 1, 2029

Yes24¢No76¢Ends Mon, Jan 1, 2029View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 77%

Total Value

$4.4K

Combined PnL

-$8.19

Smart Money Entry

81¢ → 76.5¢

-6% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes24%

No77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares5,300

Combined PnL-$140.43

Yes3 traders

Total Value$559.28

Total Shares3,496

Combined PnL+$132.24

No — 77%Yes — 23%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 73% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x2a5ffc44aeb0aa4d1cdf41df7e6be60ed4476c92	Noavg 81.4¢	$2.0K	$1.7K	-$274.04	—
BlondBeast	Noavg 79.5¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$44.47	—
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 85.5¢	$540.53	$451.24	-$89.29	40% 3217-4824 (8041)
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR	Yesavg 15.1¢	$420.43	$446.1	+$25.67	1% 4-584 (588)
HoshinoAI	Noavg 82.4¢	$488.14	$238.22	-$19.67	42% 13-18 (31)
Haradwaith	Noavg 86¢	$172	$140	-$32	38% 58-96 (154)
0xb7de57721ee931290e90bc0c8a9f38855130b802CTR	Yesavg 0.9¢	$6.55	$112.07	+$105.52	— 1-0 (1)
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 66.8¢	$610.38	$72.25	+$277.02	52% 1614-1484 (3098)
JO JordanMooney<$100	Noavg 55.3¢	$44.2	$61.2	+$17	— 9-0 (9)
Dr.mett<$100	Noavg 89¢	$54.32	$42.72	-$11.6	— 7-1 (8)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495	Noavg 72¢	$106.14	$18.9	+$38.26	41% 13-19 (32)
SU SulkingCrypto<$100	Noavg 85.5¢	$70.7	$5.9	-$1.65	12% 6-43 (49)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.07	$1.12	+$1.05	36% 506-908 (1414)

0x2a5ffc44aeb0aa4d1cdf41df7e6be60ed4476c92

Invested

$1,963.82

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$274.04

Record

—

BlondBeast

Invested

$1,172.27

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$44.47

Record

—

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$540.53

Value

$451.24

PnL

-$89.29

Record

40%

3217-4824 (8041)

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR

Yes

Invested

$420.43

Value

$446.1

PnL

+$25.67

Record

4-584 (588)

HoshinoAI

Invested

$488.14

Value

$238.22

PnL

-$19.67

Record

42%

13-18 (31)

Haradwaith

Invested

$172

Value

$140

PnL

-$32

Record

38%

58-96 (154)

0xb7de57721ee931290e90bc0c8a9f38855130b802CTR

Yes

Invested

$6.55

Value

$112.07

PnL

+$105.52

Record

—

1-0 (1)

Bigggggggg

Invested

$610.38

Value

$72.25

PnL

+$277.02

Record

52%

1614-1484 (3098)

JordanMooney<$100

Invested

$44.2

Value

$61.2

PnL

+$17

Record

—

9-0 (9)

Dr.mett<$100

Invested

$54.32

Value

$42.72

PnL

-$11.6

Record

—

7-1 (8)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495

Invested

$106.14

Value

$18.9

PnL

+$38.26

Record

41%

13-19 (32)

SulkingCrypto<$100

Invested

$70.7

Value

$5.9

PnL

-$1.65

Record

12%

6-43 (49)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.07

Value

$1.12

PnL

+$1.05

Record

36%

506-908 (1414)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 77%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 73% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.2%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.88

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.