Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 13 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

13 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.4¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

-$619.84

Smart Money Entry

0.5¢ → 0.4¢

-17% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 13 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes13 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares616,374

Combined PnL-$619.84

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

364 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
bernardbulletinCTR	Yesavg 0.6¢	$2.1K	$1.6K	-$497.48	69% 987-450 (1437)
mombilCTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$447.42	$503.92	+$62.67	55% 1191-966 (2157)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Yes	$177.61	$177.61	-$117.46	72% 6827-2621 (9448)
PL plumbisCTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$152.02	$159.32	+$7.31	57% 51-39 (90)
ImJustKenCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$189.7	$112.5	-$77.2	53% 3036-2716 (5752)
11 11122CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$60	$90	+$30	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$3.23	$50.7	-$17.96	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$45.32	$26.14	-$19.24	47% 83-94 (177)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$29.44	$15.97	-$17.34	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
FA failstoberCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$12.97	$14.99	+$14.99	26% 351-985 (1336)
LO Logan.CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$0	$9	+$9	41% 648-925 (1573)
QualitativeCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$5.91	$6.75	+$0.84	58% 1153-825 (1978)
HO HourglassCTR<$100	Yes	$2.02	$2.02	+$2.02	77% 8889-2658 (11547)

bernardbulletinCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,102.23

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$497.48

Record

69%

987-450 (1437)

mombilCTR

Yes

Invested

$447.42

Value

$503.92

PnL

+$62.67

Record

55%

1191-966 (2157)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Yes

Invested

$177.61

Value

$177.61

PnL

-$117.46

Record

72%

6827-2621 (9448)

plumbisCTR

Yes

Invested

$152.02

Value

$159.32

PnL

+$7.31

Record

57%

51-39 (90)

ImJustKenCTR

Yes

Invested

$189.7

Value

$112.5

PnL

-$77.2

Record

53%

3036-2716 (5752)

11122CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$60

Value

$90

PnL

+$30

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.23

Value

$50.7

PnL

-$17.96

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.32

Value

$26.14

PnL

-$19.24

Record

47%

83-94 (177)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.44

Value

$15.97

PnL

-$17.34

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

failstoberCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.97

Value

$14.99

PnL

+$14.99

Record

26%

351-985 (1336)

Logan.CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

PnL

+$9

Record

41%

648-925 (1573)

QualitativeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.91

Value

$6.75

PnL

+$0.84

Record

58%

1153-825 (1978)

HourglassCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.02

Value

$2.02

PnL

+$2.02

Record

77%

8889-2658 (11547)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 13 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

364 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.5%

0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6535.00

Max Loss

-$100.00

6635.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.