Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 13 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

13 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $352 held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$351.85

Combined PnL

$-10.5K

Smart Money Entry

0.3¢ → 0.1¢

-53% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 13 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes13 traders

Total Value$351.85

Total Shares180,492

Combined PnL$-10.5K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

206 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR	Yesavg 0.2¢	$240.17	$180.13	-$60.04	38% 20-32 (52)
ImJustKenCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$227.13	$75	-$152.13	53% 3036-2716 (5752)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Yes	$72.6K	$37.41	$-10.2K	72% 6827-2621 (9448)
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100	Yes	$20.95	$20.95	-$44.07	36% 2085-3721 (5806)
FA failstoberCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$5	$9.99	+$5	26% 351-985 (1336)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$49.38	$9.5	-$39.96	47% 83-94 (177)
LO Logan.CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$3	$6	+$3	41% 648-925 (1573)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$13.07	$4.61	-$8.46	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
QualitativeCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$5.91	$4.5	-$3.66	58% 1153-825 (1978)
bernardbulletinCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$6	$3	-$4.5	69% 987-450 (1437)
CO cocococococoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$1.62	$0.59	-$1.04	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
NO NoMoreMisterCTR	Yes	$1.1K	$0.11	+$0.05	76% 8934-2819 (11753)
RD rdbaCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$0.2	$0.06	-$0.17	60% 131-88 (219)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR

Yes

Invested

$240.17

Value

$180.13

PnL

-$60.04

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

ImJustKenCTR

Yes

Invested

$227.13

Value

$75

PnL

-$152.13

Record

53%

3036-2716 (5752)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Yes

Invested

$72,576.65

Value

$37.41

PnL

$-10.2K

Record

72%

6827-2621 (9448)

HerrieDavisCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.95

Value

$20.95

PnL

-$44.07

Record

36%

2085-3721 (5806)

failstoberCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$9.99

PnL

+$5

Record

26%

351-985 (1336)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.38

Value

$9.5

PnL

-$39.96

Record

47%

83-94 (177)

Logan.CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

PnL

+$3

Record

41%

648-925 (1573)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.07

Value

$4.61

PnL

-$8.46

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

QualitativeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.91

Value

$4.5

PnL

-$3.66

Record

58%

1153-825 (1978)

bernardbulletinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

PnL

-$4.5

Record

69%

987-450 (1437)

cocococococoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.62

Value

$0.59

PnL

-$1.04

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

NoMoreMisterCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,118.42

Value

$0.11

PnL

+$0.05

Record

76%

8934-2819 (11753)

rdbaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.2

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$0.17

Record

60%

131-88 (219)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 13 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

206 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.2%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8264.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

8364.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.