Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 12 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026?

12 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (92%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $540 held · ends Nov 4

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 92%

Total Value

$540.25

Combined PnL

$-3.3K

Smart Money Entry

4.5¢ → 0.1¢

-99% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 13 top traders (92%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$499.75

Total Shares500

Combined PnL+$53.25

Yes12 traders

Total Value$40.12

Total Shares80,238

Combined PnL$-3.4K

No — 8%Yes — 92%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

219 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

92% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
studmuffin6969	Noavg 89.3¢	$446.5	$499.75	+$53.25	59% 1027-717 (1744)
LinaBellCTR	Yesavg 4.2¢	$1.1K	$13.76	$-1.1K	64% 1197-678 (1875)
WA wan123CTR	Yesavg 7.8¢	$1.6K	$10	$-1.5K	39% 196-304 (500)
DR dromedaryyCTR	Yesavg 2.1¢	$336.35	$8	-$328.35	35% 35-64 (99)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$84.67	$1.91	-$82.98	47% 83-94 (177)
HO HourglassCTR<$100	Yes	$1.79	$1.79	-$77.91	77% 8889-2658 (11547)
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100	Yes	$1.74	$1.74	-$75.71	36% 2085-3721 (5806)
FL flawfenceCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.1¢	$61.07	$1.44	-$59.62	46% 271-319 (590)
archaicCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.6¢	$13.88	$0.5	-$13.38	85% 1906-339 (2245)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.6¢	$4.31	$0.48	-$53.06	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
Ryxon21CTR<$100	Yesavg 10.5¢	$63.01	$0.3	-$62.71	71% 318-130 (448)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$7.5	$0.17	-$7.33	45% 1905-2348 (4253)
flow-trader-at-optiverCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0	$0.03	+$0.03	39% 965-1508 (2473)

studmuffin6969

Invested

$446.5

Value

$499.75

PnL

+$53.25

Record

59%

1027-717 (1744)

LinaBellCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,080.68

Value

$13.76

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

64%

1197-678 (1875)

wan123CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,550.55

Value

$10

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

39%

196-304 (500)

dromedaryyCTR

Yes

Invested

$336.35

Value

PnL

-$328.35

Record

35%

35-64 (99)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$84.67

Value

$1.91

PnL

-$82.98

Record

47%

83-94 (177)

HourglassCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.79

Value

$1.79

PnL

-$77.91

Record

77%

8889-2658 (11547)

HerrieDavisCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.74

Value

$1.74

PnL

-$75.71

Record

36%

2085-3721 (5806)

flawfenceCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$61.07

Value

$1.44

PnL

-$59.62

Record

46%

271-319 (590)

archaicCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.88

Value

$0.5

PnL

-$13.38

Record

85%

1906-339 (2245)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.31

Value

$0.48

PnL

-$53.06

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

Ryxon21CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$63.01

Value

$0.3

PnL

-$62.71

Record

71%

318-130 (448)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.5

Value

$0.17

PnL

-$7.33

Record

45%

1905-2348 (4253)

flow-trader-at-optiverCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.03

PnL

+$0.03

Record

39%

965-1508 (2473)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 13 top traders (92%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

219 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

92% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9061.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

9161.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.