Will Radomir Saičić win the next Serbia presidential election?

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (54%) · Yes at 76¢ · $15K held · ends May 2, 2027

Yes76¢No24¢Ends Sun, May 2, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 54%

Total Value

$14.7K

Combined PnL

$308.66

Smart Money Entry

71.9¢ → 75.5¢

+5% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 13 top traders (54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes76%

No25%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$11.7K

Total Shares15,517

Combined PnL+$576.54

No6 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares12,200

Combined PnL-$267.88

Yes — 54%No — 46%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Late

393h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

54% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sniperNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 54% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x5ar	Yesavg 71.8¢	$9.6K	$10.1K	+$494.57	—
AN anoin123CTR	Noavg 27.4¢	$2.4K	$2.1K	-$248.29	46% 460-547 (1007)
tunatylerCTR	Noavg 24.4¢	$861.16	$846.3	-$14.86	60% 567-377 (944)
TH TheWindKnowsmyName	Yesavg 75¢	$638.91	$643.25	+$4.34	8% 11-131 (142)
BU buoys	Yesavg 71.9¢	$503	$528.5	+$25.5	— 0-11 (11)
Haradwaith	Yesavg 73¢	$1.1K	$217.32	+$15.27	39% 63-100 (163)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Yesavg 67¢	$221.64	$148.21	+$26.57	40% 3240-4885 (8125)
GG GGLPL<$100	Yesavg 76¢	$67.72	$67.28	-$0.45	45% 13-16 (29)
LornaPredicts<$100	Yesavg 1.8¢	$0.26	$10.98	+$10.73	12% 36-262 (298)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Noavg 28¢	$7.48	$6.42	-$1.07	26% 117-337 (454)
SP SPLPBCTR<$100	Noavg 27¢	$81.86	$5.62	-$2.66	23% 512-1699 (2211)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 28¢	$5.6	$4.8	-$0.8	53% 6070-5437 (11507)
X1 X1234567CTR<$100	Noavg 26¢	$2.54	$2.35	-$0.2	—

0x5ar

Yes

Invested

$9,605.27

Value

$10.1K

PnL

+$494.57

Record

—

anoin123CTR

Invested

$2,353.86

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$248.29

Record

46%

460-547 (1007)

tunatylerCTR

Invested

$861.16

Value

$846.3

PnL

-$14.86

Record

60%

567-377 (944)

TheWindKnowsmyName

Yes

Invested

$638.91

Value

$643.25

PnL

+$4.34

Record

11-131 (142)

buoys

Yes

Invested

$503

Value

$528.5

PnL

+$25.5

Record

—

0-11 (11)

Haradwaith

Yes

Invested

$1,108.6

Value

$217.32

PnL

+$15.27

Record

39%

63-100 (163)

xtxpleasecallme

Yes

Invested

$221.64

Value

$148.21

PnL

+$26.57

Record

40%

3240-4885 (8125)

GGLPL<$100

Yes

Invested

$67.72

Value

$67.28

PnL

-$0.45

Record

45%

13-16 (29)

LornaPredicts<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.26

Value

$10.98

PnL

+$10.73

Record

12%

36-262 (298)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Invested

$7.48

Value

$6.42

PnL

-$1.07

Record

26%

117-337 (454)

SPLPBCTR<$100

Invested

$81.86

Value

$5.62

PnL

-$2.66

Record

23%

512-1699 (2211)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$5.6

Value

$4.8

PnL

-$0.8

Record

53%

6070-5437 (11507)

X1234567CTR<$100

Invested

$2.54

Value

$2.35

PnL

-$0.2

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralYes at 76%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 13 top traders (54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Late

393h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

54% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sniperNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 54% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.2%

75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$29.50

Max Loss

-$100.00

129.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.