Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 13 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

13 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.4¢ · $581 held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$581.29

Combined PnL

-$221.86

Smart Money Entry

0.4¢ → 0.4¢

-15% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 13 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes13 traders

Total Value$581.29

Total Shares145,882

Combined PnL-$221.86

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

199 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$196.85	$200	-$21.85	53% 1174-1056 (2230)
BigRabbitCTR	Yesavg 0.3¢	$110	$146.67	+$20.72	40% 704-1061 (1765)
PL plumbisCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$69.73	$80	+$0.28	57% 51-39 (90)
LO Logan.CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$38.31	$42.34	-$42.88	41% 648-925 (1573)
DonkovCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$29.6	$29.19	-$0.41	71% 968-396 (1364)
GenaTheBondKilIerCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$94.17	$28.21	-$65.96	51% 527-509 (1036)
GollumGekkoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$26.65	$16.17	-$13.05	68% 2074-957 (3031)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$34.7	$15.57	-$19.18	47% 83-94 (177)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$4.25	$11.11	-$5.84	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
Q9 Q96s3kwozynxpauCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$16.77	$10.68	-$6.09	41% 166-240 (406)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yes	$0.97	$0.97	-$1.04	7% 14-187 (201)
NO NoMoreMisterCTR	Yes	$3.6K	$0.32	-$66.63	76% 8934-2819 (11753)
VI VivianWardCTR<$100	Yes	$0.07	$0.07	+$0.07	86% 3499-571 (4070)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$196.85

Value

$200

PnL

-$21.85

Record

53%

1174-1056 (2230)

BigRabbitCTR

Yes

Invested

$110

Value

$146.67

PnL

+$20.72

Record

40%

704-1061 (1765)

plumbisCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$69.73

Value

$80

PnL

+$0.28

Record

57%

51-39 (90)

Logan.CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.31

Value

$42.34

PnL

-$42.88

Record

41%

648-925 (1573)

DonkovCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.6

Value

$29.19

PnL

-$0.41

Record

71%

968-396 (1364)

GenaTheBondKilIerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$94.17

Value

$28.21

PnL

-$65.96

Record

51%

527-509 (1036)

GollumGekkoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.65

Value

$16.17

PnL

-$13.05

Record

68%

2074-957 (3031)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.7

Value

$15.57

PnL

-$19.18

Record

47%

83-94 (177)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.25

Value

$11.11

PnL

-$5.84

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

Q96s3kwozynxpauCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.77

Value

$10.68

PnL

-$6.09

Record

41%

166-240 (406)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.97

Value

$0.97

PnL

-$1.04

Record

14-187 (201)

NoMoreMisterCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,567.89

Value

$0.32

PnL

-$66.63

Record

76%

8934-2819 (11753)

VivianWardCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.07

Value

$0.07

PnL

+$0.07

Record

86%

3499-571 (4070)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 13 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

199 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.4%

0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7026.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

7126.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.