Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?

6 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (46%) · No at 59¢ · $20K held · ends Jul 1, 2027

Yes42¢No58¢Ends Thu, Jul 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 46%

Total Value

$19.7K

Combined PnL

$501.57

Smart Money Entry

56.2¢ → 58.5¢

+4% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 13 top traders (46%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes42%

No59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$11.8K

Total Shares19,934

Combined PnL+$423.81

Yes7 traders

Total Value$7.9K

Total Shares19,000

Combined PnL+$77.77

No — 46%Yes — 54%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Late

2332h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

51 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

46% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 60% · 5

Diverging

sharpNo 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Parz1vaI	Noavg 59¢	$7.4K	$7.3K	-$104.43	72% 3510-1334 (4844)
ImJustKenCTR	Yesavg 43.8¢	$6.4K	$6.4K	+$66.87	53% 3043-2720 (5763)
cambridgeisaac	Noavg 50.6¢	$1.8K	$2.1K	+$282.7	57% 1117-839 (1956)
88 881112	Noavg 48.9¢	$994.61	$1.2K	+$195.66	37% 568-948 (1516)
Tenebrus7	Noavg 56.4¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$48.33	73% 2958-1074 (4032)
realbengvirCTR	Yesavg 42.9¢	$680.98	$658.87	-$22.11	51% 19-18 (37)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR	Yesavg 41.5¢	$336.26	$336.28	+$0.02	53% 7528-6656 (14184)
SH shiifooCTR	Yesavg 29.9¢	$659.75	$270.08	+$33.12	59% 3562-2476 (6038)
TheKinginYellowCTR	Yesavg 39.6¢	$147.19	$154.16	+$6.97	68% 830-399 (1229)
SP SPLPB	Noavg 61¢	$159.08	$78.89	+$1.3	24% 666-2083 (2749)
ME melganisCTR<$100	Yesavg 49¢	$49	$41.5	-$7.5	75% 1599-543 (2142)
yen4u<$100	Noavg 58¢	$29	$29.25	+$0.25	86% 832-136 (968)
LU lugCTR<$100	Yesavg 38.6¢	$5.3	$5.7	+$0.4	54% 1843-1581 (3424)

Parz1vaI

Invested

$7,407.69

Value

$7.3K

PnL

-$104.43

Record

72%

3510-1334 (4844)

ImJustKenCTR

Yes

Invested

$6,351.5

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$66.87

Record

53%

3043-2720 (5763)

cambridgeisaac

Invested

$1,820.37

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$282.7

Record

57%

1117-839 (1956)

881112

Invested

$994.61

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$195.66

Record

37%

568-948 (1516)

Tenebrus7

Invested

$1,087.76

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$48.33

Record

73%

2958-1074 (4032)

realbengvirCTR

Yes

Invested

$680.98

Value

$658.87

PnL

-$22.11

Record

51%

19-18 (37)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR

Yes

Invested

$336.26

Value

$336.28

PnL

+$0.02

Record

53%

7528-6656 (14184)

shiifooCTR

Yes

Invested

$659.75

Value

$270.08

PnL

+$33.12

Record

59%

3562-2476 (6038)

TheKinginYellowCTR

Yes

Invested

$147.19

Value

$154.16

PnL

+$6.97

Record

68%

830-399 (1229)

SPLPB

Invested

$159.08

Value

$78.89

PnL

+$1.3

Record

24%

666-2083 (2749)

melganisCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$49

Value

$41.5

PnL

-$7.5

Record

75%

1599-543 (2142)

yen4u<$100

Invested

$29

Value

$29.25

PnL

+$0.25

Record

86%

832-136 (968)

lugCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.3

Value

$5.7

PnL

+$0.4

Record

54%

1843-1581 (3424)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 59%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

6 of 13 top traders (46%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Late

2332h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

51 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

46% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 60% · 5

Diverging

sharpNo 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.