Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election?

1 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (8%) · No at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Apr 19, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Apr 19, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 8%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$668.29

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 13 top traders (8%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,060

Combined PnL+$9.24

Yes12 traders

Total Value$121.9

Total Shares115,650

Combined PnL-$677.53

No — 8%Yes — 92%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

46 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

8% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpYes 75% · 4

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 90% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 99¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$9.24	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
ST StudentMoneyCTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$430.53	$64.01	-$366.52	71% 828-343 (1171)
perfectnostalgiaCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$136.22	$19.46	-$106.95	55% 338-273 (611)
FL flawfenceCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$62.91	$12.08	-$50.83	46% 271-319 (590)
LE leegunnerCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$26.95	$10.78	-$16.17	41% 1281-1829 (3110)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$34.72	$6.68	-$28.09	47% 83-94 (177)
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100	Yes	$4.26	$4.26	-$26.86	36% 2085-3721 (5806)
nicoco89CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.9¢	$73.37	$1.89	-$70.51	65% 1075-583 (1658)
BI BikesAreTheBikesCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$1.15	$1.86	-$11.75	39% 1780-2832 (4612)
NO NoMoreMisterCTR	Yes	$798.15	$0.42	+$0.62	76% 8934-2819 (11753)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.21	$0.17	+$0.26	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yes	$0.15	$0.15	-$0.95	7% 14-187 (201)
HO HourglassCTR	Yes	$907.07	$0.14	+$0.22	77% 8889-2658 (11547)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$1,049.43

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$9.24

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

StudentMoneyCTR

Yes

Invested

$430.53

Value

$64.01

PnL

-$366.52

Record

71%

828-343 (1171)

perfectnostalgiaCTR

Yes

Invested

$136.22

Value

$19.46

PnL

-$106.95

Record

55%

338-273 (611)

flawfenceCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$62.91

Value

$12.08

PnL

-$50.83

Record

46%

271-319 (590)

leegunnerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.95

Value

$10.78

PnL

-$16.17

Record

41%

1281-1829 (3110)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.72

Value

$6.68

PnL

-$28.09

Record

47%

83-94 (177)

HerrieDavisCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.26

Value

$4.26

PnL

-$26.86

Record

36%

2085-3721 (5806)

nicoco89CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$73.37

Value

$1.89

PnL

-$70.51

Record

65%

1075-583 (1658)

BikesAreTheBikesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.15

Value

$1.86

PnL

-$11.75

Record

39%

1780-2832 (4612)

NoMoreMisterCTR

Yes

Invested

$798.15

Value

$0.42

PnL

+$0.62

Record

76%

8934-2819 (11753)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.21

Value

$0.17

PnL

+$0.26

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.15

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$0.95

Record

14-187 (201)

HourglassCTR

Yes

Invested

$907.07

Value

$0.14

PnL

+$0.22

Record

77%

8889-2658 (11547)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 13 top traders (8%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

46 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

8% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpYes 75% · 4

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 90% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.