Will there be between 125m and 130m votes cast in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?

12 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 98¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 4

Yes2¢No98¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 86%

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

-$97.56

Smart Money Entry

97.8¢ → 97.9¢

+0% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 14 top traders (86%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares2,627

Combined PnL+$19.89

Yes2 traders

Total Value$190.91

Total Shares8,485

Combined PnL-$117.45

No — 86%Yes — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Late

184h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Noavg 98.5¢	$978	$971.52	-$6.47	53% 5758-5142 (10900)
Lucerys	Noavg 96.7¢	$605.21	$619.92	+$14.72	38% 3321-5397 (8718)
QU quietparcel	Noavg 96.6¢	$307.15	$314.62	+$7.47	25% 81-244 (325)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 98.9¢	$256.15	$256.5	+$0.34	31% 2830-6233 (9063)
balthazar	Noavg 98.9¢	$197.8	$198	+$0.2	51% 4732-4556 (9288)
AZ AzariahJubyCTR	Yesavg 3.6¢	$305.21	$188.47	-$116.74	— 0-8 (8)
GR graynotebook19	Noavg 98.9¢	$118.68	$118.8	+$0.12	26% 863-2483 (3346)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 91.1¢	$27.33	$29.7	+$2.37	27% 939-2515 (3454)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 97.9¢	$29.37	$29.7	+$0.33	17% 68-331 (399)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 96.8¢	$24.83	$25.38	+$0.55	50% 395-390 (785)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$14.84	$14.85	+$0.01	79% 444-118 (562)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 96.6¢	$4.98	$5.11	+$0.12	42% 743-1014 (1757)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 96.6¢	$4.94	$5.06	+$0.12	45% 446-539 (985)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$3.15	$2.44	-$0.72	41% 3151-4506 (7657)

cigarettes

Invested

$978

Value

$971.52

PnL

-$6.47

Record

53%

5758-5142 (10900)

Lucerys

Invested

$605.21

Value

$619.92

PnL

+$14.72

Record

38%

3321-5397 (8718)

quietparcel

Invested

$307.15

Value

$314.62

PnL

+$7.47

Record

25%

81-244 (325)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$256.15

Value

$256.5

PnL

+$0.34

Record

31%

2830-6233 (9063)

balthazar

Invested

$197.8

Value

$198

PnL

+$0.2

Record

51%

4732-4556 (9288)

AzariahJubyCTR

Yes

Invested

$305.21

Value

$188.47

PnL

-$116.74

Record

—

0-8 (8)

graynotebook19

Invested

$118.68

Value

$118.8

PnL

+$0.12

Record

26%

863-2483 (3346)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$27.33

Value

$29.7

PnL

+$2.37

Record

27%

939-2515 (3454)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$29.37

Value

$29.7

PnL

+$0.33

Record

17%

68-331 (399)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$24.83

Value

$25.38

PnL

+$0.55

Record

50%

395-390 (785)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$14.84

Value

$14.85

PnL

+$0.01

Record

79%

444-118 (562)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$4.98

Value

$5.11

PnL

+$0.12

Record

42%

743-1014 (1757)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$4.94

Value

$5.06

PnL

+$0.12

Record

45%

446-539 (985)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.15

Value

$2.44

PnL

-$0.72

Record

41%

3151-4506 (7657)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 14 top traders (86%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Late

184h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.9%

97.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.