Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

2 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (15%) · No at 100¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 15%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

-$517.29

Smart Money Entry

96.5¢ → 99.9¢

+4% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 13 top traders (15%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares2,155

Combined PnL+$73.01

Yes11 traders

Total Value$397.68

Total Shares395,510

Combined PnL-$590.3

No — 15%Yes — 85%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

44 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

15% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 86% · 7

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 86% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RD rdba	Noavg 96¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$71.75	60% 131-88 (219)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 99.4¢	$289.34	$290.59	+$1.25	56% 14224-11030 (25254)
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 0.1¢	$119.34	$238.68	+$119.34	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
EA EatprayloveCTR	Yesavg 0.9¢	$440.78	$74.19	-$366.59	57% 766-585 (1351)
Q9 Q96s3kwozynxpauCTR	Yesavg 1.1¢	$110.89	$27.12	-$83.77	41% 166-240 (406)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Yesavg 2¢	$29.43	$17.91	-$113.15	72% 6827-2621 (9448)
DonkovCTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$42.18	$17.87	-$24.31	71% 968-396 (1364)
LO Logan.CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$38.31	$10.59	-$64.05	41% 648-925 (1573)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$33.78	$6.5	-$27.34	47% 83-94 (177)
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100	Yes	$4.33	$4.33	-$27.34	36% 2085-3721 (5806)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yes	$0.29	$0.29	-$1.83	7% 14-187 (201)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$0.91	$0.12	-$0.79	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
NO NoMoreMisterCTR<$100	Yes	$0.08	$0.08	-$0.48	76% 8934-2819 (11753)

rdba

Invested

$1,789.2

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$71.75

Record

60%

131-88 (219)

ghorrock

Invested

$289.34

Value

$290.59

PnL

+$1.25

Record

56%

14224-11030 (25254)

11122CTR

Yes

Invested

$119.34

Value

$238.68

PnL

+$119.34

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

EatprayloveCTR

Yes

Invested

$440.78

Value

$74.19

PnL

-$366.59

Record

57%

766-585 (1351)

Q96s3kwozynxpauCTR

Yes

Invested

$110.89

Value

$27.12

PnL

-$83.77

Record

41%

166-240 (406)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Yes

Invested

$29.43

Value

$17.91

PnL

-$113.15

Record

72%

6827-2621 (9448)

DonkovCTR

Yes

Invested

$42.18

Value

$17.87

PnL

-$24.31

Record

71%

968-396 (1364)

Logan.CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.31

Value

$10.59

PnL

-$64.05

Record

41%

648-925 (1573)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$33.78

Value

$6.5

PnL

-$27.34

Record

47%

83-94 (177)

HerrieDavisCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.33

Value

$4.33

PnL

-$27.34

Record

36%

2085-3721 (5806)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.29

Value

$0.29

PnL

-$1.83

Record

14-187 (201)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.91

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$0.79

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

NoMoreMisterCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.08

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$0.48

Record

76%

8934-2819 (11753)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 13 top traders (15%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

44 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

15% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 86% · 7

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 86% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.