Sopo: Polona Hercog vs Varvara Lepchenko

12 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Polona Hercog (75%) · Polona Hercog at 83¢ · $30K held · ends Nov 17

Polona Hercog83¢Varvara Lepchenko17¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Polona Hercog

Consensus Traders

Polona Hercog 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$30.4K

Combined PnL

$4.5K

Smart Money Entry

59.2¢ → 82.5¢

+39% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralPolona Hercog at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Polona Hercog

12 of 16 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Polona Hercog83%

Varvara Lepchenko18%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Polona Hercog12 traders

Total Value$29.4K

Total Shares35,062

Combined PnL+$4.5K

Varvara Lepchenko4 traders

Total Value$836.06

Total Shares2,010

Combined PnL+$0.36

Polona Hercog — 75%Varvara Lepchenko — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on Polona Hercog. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Varvara Lepchenko) and the top 1000 (8 on Polona Hercog) disagree here.

whalePolona Hercog 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrPolona Hercog 75% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedVarvara Lepchenko 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Polona Hercog 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Polona Hercogavg 58.5¢	$11.7K	$12.5K	+$750.48	47% 2293-2595 (4888)
RN1	Polona Hercogavg 59.7¢	$5.4K	$7.4K	+$2.0K	53% 72121-63608 (135729)
65 6512395314597884	Polona Hercogavg 61.3¢	$4.8K	$6.4K	+$1.6K	51% 6120-5875 (11995)
OM omnibus-076daa	Polona Hercogavg 56¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$28.34	50% 24147-24262 (48409)
38 38791873984189	Polona Hercogavg 55.9¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$10.82	48% 72263-78012 (150275)
0xheavy888CTR	Varvara Lepchenkoavg 43¢	$795.53	$805.62	+$10.08	56% 9043-7128 (16171)
EU Eulhunter	Polona Hercogavg 57.9¢	$266.51	$374.9	+$108.39	53% 6836-5985 (12821)
TH thirdt1me	Polona Hercogavg 65.8¢	$336.47	$321.5	+$54.55	58% 237-173 (410)
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Varvara Lepchenkoavg 51.9¢	$183.21	$139.05	-$34.67	53% 861-758 (1619)
└ Polona Hercog leg	Polona Hercogavg 68.9¢	$82.57	$95.25	+$13.21
└ Varvara Lepchenko leg	Varvara Lepchenkoavg 51.9¢	$110.91	$43.8	-$47.88
EF efntrick	Polona Hercogavg 56¢	$100.8	$101.7	+$0.9	49% 3741-3962 (7703)
machinelearned<$100	Polona Hercogavg 57.8¢	$54.4	$68.3	+$13.9	54% 10552-8960 (19512)
TH thestingsnake<$100	Polona Hercogavg 64¢	$75.45	$37.78	+$3.15	60% 4654-3141 (7795)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Varvara Lepchenkoavg 24.7¢	$36.57	$27.35	-$9.22	52% 6205-5726 (11931)
VE Venusian<$100	Polona Hercogavg 82¢	$9.23	$9.17	-$0.06	45% 2826-3461 (6287)
MA MadridTime<$100	Polona Hercogavg 77.9¢	$7.25	$7.59	+$0.34	45% 2764-3372 (6136)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Varvara Lepchenkoavg 42¢	$5	$2.18	+$0.08	53% 14841-13046 (27887)
OJ ojgCTR<$100	Varvara Lepchenkoavg 30¢	$1.5	$0.93	-$0.58	51% 4008-3805 (7813)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Polona Hercog

Invested

$11,738.9

Value

$12.5K

PnL

+$750.48

Record

47%

2293-2595 (4888)

RN1

Polona Hercog

Invested

$5,447.19

Value

$7.4K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

53%

72121-63608 (135729)

6512395314597884

Polona Hercog

Invested

$4,835.77

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

51%

6120-5875 (11995)

omnibus-076daa

Polona Hercog

Invested

$1,066.19

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$28.34

Record

50%

24147-24262 (48409)

38791873984189

Polona Hercog

Invested

$1,054.21

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$10.82

Record

48%

72263-78012 (150275)

0xheavy888CTR

Varvara Lepchenko

Invested

$795.53

Value

$805.62

PnL

+$10.08

Record

56%

9043-7128 (16171)

Eulhunter

Polona Hercog

Invested

$266.51

Value

$374.9

PnL

+$108.39

Record

53%

6836-5985 (12821)

thirdt1me

Polona Hercog

Invested

$336.47

Value

$321.5

PnL

+$54.55

Record

58%

237-173 (410)

1lovejumpARB<$100

Varvara Lepchenko

Invested

$183.21

Value

$139.05

PnL

-$34.67

Record

53%

861-758 (1619)

Both legs:

Polona Hercog$82.5768.9¢+$13.21

Varvara Lepchenko$110.9151.9¢-$47.88

efntrick

Polona Hercog

Invested

$100.8

Value

$101.7

PnL

+$0.9

Record

49%

3741-3962 (7703)

machinelearned<$100

Polona Hercog

Invested

$54.4

Value

$68.3

PnL

+$13.9

Record

54%

10552-8960 (19512)

thestingsnake<$100

Polona Hercog

Invested

$75.45

Value

$37.78

PnL

+$3.15

Record

60%

4654-3141 (7795)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Varvara Lepchenko

Invested

$36.57

Value

$27.35

PnL

-$9.22

Record

52%

6205-5726 (11931)

Venusian<$100

Polona Hercog

Invested

$9.23

Value

$9.17

PnL

-$0.06

Record

45%

2826-3461 (6287)

MadridTime<$100

Polona Hercog

Invested

$7.25

Value

$7.59

PnL

+$0.34

Record

45%

2764-3372 (6136)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Varvara Lepchenko

Invested

Value

$2.18

PnL

+$0.08

Record

53%

14841-13046 (27887)

ojgCTR<$100

Varvara Lepchenko

Invested

$1.5

Value

$0.93

PnL

-$0.58

Record

51%

4008-3805 (7813)

Research grade

NeutralPolona Hercog at 83%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Polona Hercog

12 of 16 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on Polona Hercog. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Varvara Lepchenko) and the top 1000 (8 on Polona Hercog) disagree here.

whalePolona Hercog 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrPolona Hercog 75% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedVarvara Lepchenko 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Polona Hercog 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Polona Hercog wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.